On Holding AG (ONON): Premium Growth With LightSpray Upside
On Holding is pairing rapid revenue growth with premium footwear economics, expanding DTC, and early traction from LightSpray. The stock looks attractive for investors who can tolerate high beta and valuation risk.
On Holding AG (ONON) looks like a good investment right now, earning an overall grade of B+ and a Buy. The business is compounding quickly, with 26.4% constant-currency growth in Q1 2026, a 64.2% gross margin, and improving mix from DTC, apparel, and APAC. Our fair value is $42.
Thesis
On Holding AG (ONON) combines unusually strong growth with premium footwear economics, a growing direct-to-consumer channel, and a credible innovation pipeline. The latest quarter produced $850.5M of revenue, a 64.2% gross margin, $120.0M of operating income, and $105.6M of net income. The valuation is not cheap at 40.4x trailing earnings, but the 23.6x forward P/E and 0.7 PEG ratio reflect a business that still has room to compound.
The central investment case is execution. On grew 30.0% in 2025 to CHF 3.014B of sales, then delivered 26.4% constant-currency growth in Q1 2026. Apparel, Asia-Pacific, owned retail, and LightSpray give the company several growth engines beyond its established running franchises. The trade-off is a high-beta stock, meaningful footwear concentration, tariff exposure, and a 4-for-7 earnings beat record. For a moderate-risk investor with a medium-term horizon, that mix supports a Buy rather than an aggressive rating.
Management reiterated at least 23% constant-currency sales growth for 2026 and raised profitability guidance to at least a 64.5% gross margin and a 19.5% to 20.0% adjusted EBITDA margin. Those figures give the stock a solid operating foundation. They do not erase valuation risk, especially with a beta of 2.1 and a trailing P/E above 40x.
Company Overview
On Holding AG (ONON) is a Swiss performance sportswear company founded in 2010 and headquartered in Zurich. The company sells footwear, apparel, and accessories through wholesale partners, owned stores, and e-commerce. Its products cover performance running, outdoor, tennis, training, all-day use, and young movers.
On had 3,963 employees and serves customers in more than 90 countries. The brand sits between technical running specialists and broad athletic giants such as Nike (NKE) and adidas (ADS.DE). Its identity relies on performance technology, distinctive design, premium pricing, and a controlled distribution model.
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Frequently asked questions
+Is ONON stock a buy right now?
Yes, ONON is a Buy for investors who can handle volatility. The company is growing fast, expanding DTC and APAC, and still has premium margin power, but the stock’s 2.1 beta and 40x-plus trailing earnings mean the upside depends on continued execution.
+What is ONON's fair value?
On Holding's fair value is $42. That reflects the report's midpoint valuation framework, with the stock supported by 23.6x forward earnings, a 0.7 PEG ratio, and improving mix from DTC, apparel, and APAC growth.
+Why does On Holding deserve a Buy rating?
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The 2025 product mix remained heavily concentrated in shoes. Footwear generated CHF 2.804B, or 93.0% of total sales. Apparel contributed CHF 169.9M, or 5.6%, while accessories produced CHF 39.6M, or 1.3%. That concentration creates focus and brand clarity, but it also leaves On exposed to changes in running demand, product cycles, and consumer fashion.
Business Segment Deep Dive
Wholesale remains the larger channel. Q1 2026 wholesale revenue reached CHF 509.6M, up 13.3% on a reported basis and 25.1% at constant currency. Direct-to-consumer revenue reached CHF 322.3M, up 16.4% reported and 28.7% constant currency. DTC is growing faster and carries strategic value because On controls the presentation, pricing, customer data, and store experience.
Geographic growth was broad but uneven in reported currency. The Americas generated CHF 450.7M and grew 17.1% at constant currency, compared with 3.1% reported growth. EMEA generated CHF 207.1M, up 25.6% constant currency, while APAC generated CHF 174.0M, up 61.4% constant currency and 44.4% reported. APAC exceeded 20% of global sales for the first time in the quarter.
Product expansion is beginning to change the mix. Q1 footwear revenue reached CHF 763.7M, up 24.0% constant currency. Apparel revenue rose 57.5% constant currency to CHF 55.3M, and accessories revenue rose 86.6% constant currency to CHF 12.9M. Apparel exceeded 10% of DTC sales for the first time, giving On a meaningful entry point into the brand beyond shoes.
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The Cloudmonster franchise remains a major performance-running engine. Management said Cloudmonster 3 and Cloudmonster Hyper were outpacing their predecessors across regions, while the Cloudmonster franchise continued to make a strong contribution to footwear growth. The product family gives On a recognizable platform that can support repeat purchases and premium pricing.
Cloudtilt is the bridge from performance to lifestyle. Cloudtilt and Cloudtilt Remix posted strong growth across all regions, and management said Cloudtilt became the top-selling shoe at Foot Locker in Europe by a wide margin in March. That performance matters because lifestyle products can expand On's audience while using the same premium design language established in running.
LightSpray is the most important product technology in the current pipeline. The LightSpray Cloudmonster Hyper sold out quickly in several channels, represented close to 20% of footwear sales during the opening week of the Boston store, and reached several hundred pairs per day in DTC channels. Those are early commercial indicators rather than a mature revenue stream, but they give the technology a meaningful foothold.
Cloudzone also grew more than 350% in volume from a low base. The next major platform is Superfoam, which management says weighs roughly half as much as industry-standard EVA while providing 60% to 70% more energy return. Cloudsurfer 3 and Cloudrunner Max provide additional product catalysts for the running category.
Innovation & Competitive Advantage
On's advantage is not simply a single patented feature. It is the combination of technical performance, visible design, premium pricing, and brand storytelling. The 2025 gross margin of 62.8% and Q1 2026 gross margin of 64.2% show that consumers have accepted a price structure that produces strong economics for the company.
LightSpray could deepen that advantage if On turns a manufacturing novelty into a repeatable product platform. The Busan factory increased LightSpray production capacity 30-fold in February 2026. The technology also connects performance and luxury design through the company's collaboration with LOEWE. That combination gives On a distinctive story in a category where many products are separated by millimeters of foam and several million dollars of marketing.
Category expansion strengthens the moat. Tennis has become one of On's most engaged audiences and its highest-growth apparel vertical, while training brought thousands of new customers per quarter. The Cloud Sola trail-running franchise adds an outdoor platform. These launches reduce reliance on a single running silhouette if On continues to maintain its premium standards.
Operations & Supply Chain
On uses third-party manufacturers and suppliers, which keeps the operating model relatively asset-light but creates exposure to production interruptions, input costs, supplier capacity, and trade rules. The company imports products into major markets and specifically included a 20% incremental U.S. tariff rate in its 2026 gross-margin guidance for products imported from Vietnam.
Operational execution is improving. Distribution expenses fell to 10% of Q1 sales, a 1 percentage point year-over-year decline, helped by global warehouse automation. Management also cited shorter product-development times, improved planning efficiency, higher inventory turns, and better stock health. These improvements support growth without requiring a matching rise in distribution costs.
On's multichannel model adds resilience. Wholesale partners such as DICK'S Sporting Goods, Foot Locker, and JD Sports provide reach, while owned stores and digital channels strengthen brand control. Management said On occupies about 50% of the doors at major key accounts, leaving room for controlled expansion. New stores planned or recently opened in cities such as Boston, Seoul, Stockholm, and Sydney extend the brand's physical footprint.
Market Analysis
The broad footwear market is mature, but the categories that matter most to On are growing faster. One market estimate places global footwear at $388.31B in 2025 with a 3.3% CAGR through 2031. Athletic footwear is estimated at $194.86B in 2026 with a 6.7% CAGR through 2031, while sneakers are estimated at $100.48B with a 7.4% CAGR.
On's own market framing identifies a $40B running-footwear opportunity, a $20B outdoor-performance opportunity, more than $150B in athletic lifestyle footwear, and more than $30B in outdoor lifestyle footwear. These figures are company estimates, but they explain why On is moving from a running-first brand toward a broader sportswear platform.
The most relevant market trends are premiumization, performance-to-lifestyle crossover, online shopping, and technical material innovation. Athletic footwear's premium tier has been estimated to grow at a 7.6% CAGR, and online athletic-footwear sales at a 7.8% CAGR through 2031. On's Q1 results, including faster DTC growth and strong Cloudtilt demand, fit directly into those trends.
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On serves athletes, runners, active consumers, and customers who use performance footwear as everyday apparel. The brand's product range now covers running, outdoor, tennis, training, lifestyle, and apparel, giving it several ways to increase the number of occasions connected to one customer.
The customer base is broadening toward younger and more lifestyle-oriented buyers. Management reported the largest increase since its customer data began in the share of 18-to-24-year-olds in the DTC customer base during Q1. The Zendaya campaign generated more than 20M engaged views in the U.S., and brand awareness in the Americas crossed 30%.
Apparel is an important customer-acquisition tool. Management said customers acquired through apparel showed improving cross-category purchase rates and shorter times to repeat purchase. That gives apparel strategic value beyond its current 5.6% share of 2025 sales. The strongest version of the thesis is not simply selling more shoes, but turning a shoe customer into a head-to-toe On customer.
Competitive Landscape
On competes with much larger brands and focused specialists. Nike (NKE) generated $46.4B of fiscal 2026 revenue, giving it far greater scale in marketing, distribution, and product development. adidas (ADS.DE) reported footwear at 57% of 2025 sales, with footwear revenue up 12% on a currency-neutral basis.
Deckers Brands (DECK), through HOKA, is the closest large public comparison in premium running. HOKA generated $2.587B of fiscal 2025 sales, up 15.9%. ASICS (7936.T), Brooks, New Balance, Saucony, and Salomon also compete for running and outdoor consumers. lululemon (LULU), Alo, Patagonia, and Arc'teryx compete more heavily for premium lifestyle and apparel spending.
On is smaller than the global giants but has a faster recent growth profile and a more concentrated premium identity. The competitive risk is that larger companies can imitate design trends, increase marketing spend, or use broader distribution to pressure shelf space. On's response is visible in its full-price discipline, product cadence, and controlled expansion.
Macro & Geopolitical Landscape
On operates in consumer discretionary footwear, so demand can weaken when households reduce spending on premium goods. The company also carries material currency exposure. In Q1, Americas constant-currency growth was 17.1% versus 3.1% reported, while the Swiss franc cost base created foreign-exchange pressure in overhead expenses.
Tariffs are the clearest external margin risk. On's 2026 guidance assumes a 20% incremental tariff rate on products imported into the U.S. from Vietnam. Management still guided to a gross margin of at least 64.5%, which demonstrates confidence in pricing, sourcing, and operating leverage. A lasting tariff burden would nevertheless test the company's full-price strategy.
Geographic diversification provides a counterweight. APAC grew 61.4% at constant currency in Q1, and South Korea more than tripled year over year. EMEA delivered its sixth consecutive quarter above 25% constant-currency growth. That breadth gives On more growth avenues, although new-market execution depends on local preferences, regulations, and brand recognition.
Balance Sheet Health
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Cash and equivalents reached CHF 1.3B against CHF 1.1B of debt, leaving On with a net cash position and a current ratio of 2.7x.
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On Holding (ONON) has built a rare combination of brand heat, technical credibility, and financial improvement. Q1 2026 showed the model operating at scale: $850.5M of revenue, a 64.2% gross margin, $120.0M of operating income, and $105.6M of net income. DTC, APAC, apparel, and LightSpray expand the runway beyond the core Cloudmonster franchise.
The risks are equally concrete. Footwear generated 93.0% of 2025 sales, the company faces a 20% incremental tariff assumption on certain U.S. imports, the stock has a beta of 2.1, and annual net income fell in 2025 despite higher revenue. Insider activity also included four sales totaling 16,600 shares in the EOD transaction record.
The result is a favorable but disciplined view. On is not a bargain at any price, and premium brands can lose momentum quickly when product excitement fades. At a price near our fair value estimate of $42.00, the growth, margin, balance-sheet, and innovation evidence supports a Buy for a medium-term investor who accepts volatility and sizes the position accordingly.
On deserves a Buy because growth is broadening beyond core running into apparel, lifestyle, and Asia-Pacific while margins remain strong. The company also has a credible innovation pipeline, led by LightSpray and Superfoam, that could support premium pricing.
+What are the biggest risks for ONON investors?
The biggest risks are valuation, tariff exposure, footwear concentration, and high volatility. On still gets 93.0% of sales from footwear, and the stock has a beta of 2.1, so any slowdown in product momentum could hit the shares hard.
+How strong is On Holding's growth outlook?
The outlook is strong: management reiterated at least 23% constant-currency sales growth for 2026 after 30.0% growth in 2025. Q1 2026 also showed 28.7% constant-currency DTC growth and 61.4% constant-currency APAC growth, which suggests multiple engines are working.
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