The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
Markets face a packed week of Fed policy, Q3 GDP, and September PCE inflation as growth stays firm and price pressures remain above target. New home sales, jobless claims, mortgage rates, and trade data will help shape expectations for rates, bonds, and rate-sensitive stocks.
Fresh data showed a split US economy: business activity and hiring stayed resilient, but housing weakened sharply under high borrowing costs. Strong PMI readings and low jobless claims pointed to solid growth, while rising price pressures kept the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance in focus.
The University of Michigan’s final October consumer sentiment reading improved to 48.0 from the preliminary 46.3, but it remained near record lows and barely changed from September. Inflation expectations also rose, underscoring continued household strain from high prices and borrowing costs.
October’s S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 57.6 but still pointed to robust U.S. expansion, with new orders strong and output prices jumping to a two-year high. The mix shifts focus from recession fears to inflation risks and keeps the Federal Reserve’s policy path in the spotlight.
The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index remained in expansion territory in October but fell to 16 from 20, missing expectations. Softer new orders, weaker export demand, and rising input costs point to slower factory growth and tighter margins, even as regional manufacturing avoids contraction.
The 30-year mortgage rate dipped to 7.32%, offering a brief reprieve after weeks of gains. But builder confidence fell to its weakest level since 2012, with more price cuts and incentives signaling that housing affordability and demand remain under heavy pressure.
U.S. initial jobless claims dipped to 194,000, reinforcing a low-layoff labor market and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. But continuing claims climbed, hinting that displaced workers are taking longer to find new jobs and the economy is cooling rather than cracking.
The MBA 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.41%, but applications still fell 5.3% as buyers and refinancers stayed sidelined. Purchase and refinance demand weakened further, underscoring how little relief a small rate drop provides when borrowing costs remain near three-year highs.
US housing data showed broad weakness as home-sale contracts fell to a record low and housing starts missed forecasts. With 30-year mortgage rates near 7.4%, buyers and builders are both under pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady for now.
US homebuilder sentiment sank to its weakest level since 2012 as mortgage rates above 7% crushed buyer traffic and darkened six-month sales expectations. Builders are responding with deeper price cuts and incentives, signaling a housing slowdown that could weigh on growth and keep pressure on Federal Reserve policy.
A packed U.S. data week puts housing in focus as mortgage rates hover near a three-year high. Builder sentiment, housing starts, permits, and existing-home activity will test whether demand can hold up while jobless claims stay near 200,000 and business activity remains firm.
US markets were squeezed between resilient growth and hotter inflation as September producer prices jumped sharply. Retail sales, jobless claims and industrial output all pointed to a still-solid economy, but the inflation spike strengthened the case for a tougher Federal Reserve path and kept stocks under pressure.
Generate AI research on any ticker — grades, price targets, and full analysis in minutes.
Open the GeneratorCancel anytime