The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
Small-business confidence cooled in August as the NFIB Optimism Index fell to 98.7, below forecasts but still above its long-run average. Weaker sales and softer expectations offset easing labor-cost pressure, leaving the report as a slowdown signal rather than a sign of contraction.
August payrolls rose 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%, signaling a labor market that remains resilient even as hiring cools. Softer ADP growth and fewer quits point to slowing momentum, while Treasury yields climbed and traders boosted odds of a September Fed rate hike.
A packed September economic calendar puts inflation, labor and housing in focus just days before the Federal Reserve meets. August CPI is the headline event, with PPI, jobless claims, existing home sales and consumer sentiment offering key clues on whether inflation is cooling and the labor market is softening.
U.S. housing data point to a broad slowdown as July home sales, contract signings and housing starts all weakened under mortgage rates near 7%. Prices flattened month to month, but permits held up and annual gains remained positive, suggesting a soft patch rather than a housing bust.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report, firm services activity and sticky inflation signals pushed Treasury yields higher and revived September hike odds. Markets sold off as investors recalibrated the Fed outlook, even after earlier weak payroll data and dovish comments from Christopher Waller.
U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, far above forecasts, while unemployment held at 4.1% and private payrolls strengthened. The hotter-than-expected report lifted Treasury yields, pressured stocks, and pushed markets to price a greater chance of a September Fed rate hike.
U.S. mortgage rates climbed again, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.71% and the 15-year to 6.04%. Higher Treasury yields and lingering inflation concerns are keeping housing affordability under pressure, even as purchase demand holds up better than expected.
The ISM Services PMI jumped to 55.4 in August, with new orders and business activity hitting multiyear highs. But the prices index surged to 72.6 while employment stayed in contraction, sharpening inflation concerns and keeping Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations in focus.
August data showed U.S. services activity accelerating sharply, manufacturing still expanding, and factory orders rebounding. But sticky input prices and softer hiring keep the outlook mixed, reinforcing concerns that strong demand could keep the Federal Reserve cautious on rates.
U.S. jobless claims rose slightly at the end of August, but the data still point to a labor market with few layoffs and slower hiring. Continuing claims stayed below forecasts, keeping the Federal Reserve focused on inflation rather than an urgent employment slowdown.
U.S. factory orders rose more than expected in July, easing fears of an industrial slowdown. But the headline gain was powered largely by a jump in civilian aircraft orders, while core business investment stayed flat, tempering the outlook for a broad manufacturing recovery.
The MBA’s latest survey shows the 30-year mortgage rate climbing to 6.79%, its highest in four weeks, even as mortgage applications edged up 0.8%. Purchase demand held up, but refinancing stayed weak, underscoring a housing market constrained by expensive financing and limited affordability.
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