The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
A packed October calendar puts the ISM Services PMI, Fed speeches, FOMC minutes, mortgage rates, and jobless claims in focus. Traders will watch for signs that strong service demand can coexist with cooling hiring, sticky inflation, and rising policy uncertainty.
A weaker September payrolls report cooled expectations for another Fed hike, but stronger manufacturing, firm jobless claims and a jump in ISM prices kept inflation worries alive. Markets swung between soft-landing optimism and higher-rate caution as Treasury yields reversed and stocks tried to digest mixed economic signals.
US factory orders rose just 0.1% in August, but the details showed a slower-moving industrial economy rather than a stall. Core business equipment demand held up, while aircraft orders fell sharply, reinforcing a mixed manufacturing outlook and little urgency for a Fed rate hike.
September payrolls rose just 29,000, far below forecasts, while unemployment edged up to 4.2%. Traders quickly cut odds of another Fed hike, lifting stocks and pushing Treasury yields lower as markets read the report as cooling labor demand rather than a collapse.
US mortgage rates surged again, with the 30-year fixed average climbing to 7.28% and hitting its highest level since late 2023. The move is squeezing affordability, cooling buyer demand, and reinforcing a higher-for-longer housing market backdrop.
U.S. manufacturing stayed in expansion, with new orders and employment improving, but the Prices Paid Index jumped sharply, signaling fresh inflation pressure. The report points to resilient factory demand, higher input costs, and a tougher path for the Federal Reserve on rate cuts.
U.S. jobless claims slipped below forecasts, with initial and continuing claims both declining. The data point to a labor market that is cooling without cracking, easing recession fears but giving the Federal Reserve less reason to move quickly toward rate cuts.
The MBA’s 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.30%, the highest in the current data set and a fresh blow to affordability. Applications fell again as Treasury yields surged, pushing housing deeper into a slowdown even as the broader labor market remains stable.
The U.S. economy grew faster than first reported in Q2, with real GDP revised to 2.2% and private domestic demand strengthening. But the GDP price index surged to 6.1%, underscoring persistent inflation pressure and keeping the Federal Reserve in a difficult policy position.
September’s ADP report showed private payrolls rising 90,000, topping forecasts and marking a three-month high. The gain was led by education and health services, but overall hiring still looks modest, supporting a soft-landing view and a cautious Federal Reserve stance.
U.S. consumer confidence sank sharply in September, missing forecasts by a wide margin and hitting its weakest level since 2014. Rising inflation worries and softer labor-market expectations weighed on the outlook, even as August retail sales rose 1.2%, suggesting consumers are cautious rather than collapsing.
U.S. home prices rose more than expected on an annual basis, but monthly gains flattened to zero as 7% mortgage rates kept affordability under pressure. The report shows a split housing market, with Chicago still climbing while several Western metros continue to weaken.
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