Agilon Health, Inc.

Second quarter 2026 revenue was approximately $1.5 billion, compared with $1.4 billion in Q2 2025. Medical margin was $197 million versus negative $53 million a year ago, and adjusted EBITDA was $70 million versus negative $83 million. Medicare Advantage membership ended Q2 at 437,000, down from 498,000 in Q2 2025, while ACO REACH membership was 112,000 versus 116,000 a year ago. Management said the Q2 medical margin beat the midpoint of guidance by about $74 million and adjusted EBITDA beat the midpoint by about $50 million. For the full year 2026, the company raised guidance to roughly $5.8 billion of revenue, $485 million of medical margin, and $85 million of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint, including ACO REACH adjusted EBITDA of $25 million to $30 million. Third-quarter 2026 guidance at the midpoint is about $1.46 billion of revenue, $110 million of medical margin, and break-even adjusted EBITDA. The company ended the quarter with $257 million of cash and marketable securities and $83 million of off-balance-sheet cash held by ACO entities, and it continues to expect year-end 2026 cash of at least $125 million.

Tim O’Rourke framed the quarter as evidence that Agilon’s transformation is gaining traction and said the company exceeded Q2 guidance across key financial metrics. He stressed that the strategy centers on deeper physician partnerships, earlier identification and intervention through data and AI tools, and expanding evidence-based clinical pathways for CHF, COPD, and dementia. His tone was constructive and confident, but he also repeatedly noted that the company still has work to do to reduce variability and fully realize the model’s potential.

Jeff Schwaneke focused on the financial drivers behind the beat and raise. He said Q2 medical margin of $197 million and adjusted EBITDA of $70 million both exceeded the high end of guidance, helped by favorable prior year development of $22 million, revised risk score estimates, and better first-quarter cost trend development; he also said the year-to-date risk adjustment impact is now about 3% net of V28. On the balance sheet, he cited $257 million in cash and marketable securities plus $83 million of off-balance-sheet ACO cash, and reiterated an expectation for at least $125 million of year-end 2026 cash. He also guided to a prudent back-half assumption of cost trends in the 7% range and said Q3 should be roughly break-even on adjusted EBITDA.

Analysts focused on how much of the 2026 beat was one-time versus repeatable, how to think about the second-half cost-trend profile, and what the bridge looks like into 2027. Management said the $22 million prior-year development was the main six-month item flowing through EBITDA, that better risk adjustment does carry into the second half with roughly a $19 million EBITDA benefit, and that additional incentive compensation and annual wellness visit costs offset some of that. On 2027, management said it is still early, but payers have been constructive, contract discussions are underway, and the company expects opportunity from converting care coordination fee members to full risk, renewing existing relationships, and growing ACO participation.