Aurubis AG

For the first 9 months, group revenues increased by 29% to EUR 17.8 billion, gross margin rose to around EUR 1.7 billion, operating EBITDA was EUR 570 million, and operating EBT increased 31% to EUR 374 million. In Q3, operating EBT was EUR 149 million, up 23% versus Q2. Net cash flow was minus EUR 28 million versus plus EUR 357 million last year, and free cash flow before dividend was minus EUR 365 million versus minus EUR 211 million last year. Operating ROCE improved to 9.4% from 9.1%. Management reaffirmed FY25-26 guidance for operating EBITDA of EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million and operating EBT of EUR 425 million to EUR 525 million, and said EBT should land around the upper end of that range; net cash flow is expected to exceed last year and free cash flow before dividend remains expected to be at least break-even.

Toralf Haag framed the quarter as evidence that Aurubis’ multimetal model is working, with higher contributions from metals, recycling, sulfuric acid, and copper products offsetting continued pressure in concentrate TC/RCs. He sounded constructive on the market backdrop, especially sulfuric acid and copper products, while emphasizing that the company can compensate weakness in one area with strength in others. On strategy, he highlighted successful execution at Complex Recycling Hamburg, nearing commissioning at Pirdop, and the long-term value of Richmond despite the ramp-up issues.

Steffen Hoffmann focused on the numbers behind the quarter: Q3 operating EBT of EUR 149 million, 9-month operating EBITDA of EUR 570 million, revenue of EUR 17.8 billion, and gross margin of around EUR 1.7 billion. He said net working capital increased by EUR 525 million because of higher metal prices, seasonality, and project ramp-up, which drove net cash flow to minus EUR 28 million and free cash flow before dividend to minus EUR 365 million. He also said cash CapEx is likely to come in below EUR 600 million, down from an earlier target, and that the balance sheet remains solid with equity ratio close to 49% and debt coverage at 1.0.

Analysts pressed management on why full-year EBT guidance still implies a relatively muted Q4 despite positive drivers like sulfuric acid and metals; management said Q4 should be in a similar ballpark to Q3, but higher TC/RC pressure and seasonally higher costs will offset some upside. The main debate centered on Richmond: management said the lower outlook is driven mainly by technical ramp-up issues in Phase 1 and a less favorable raw-material mix, not a collapse in commercial terms, and that the earnings profile has shifted out by one year. Management also said Richmond’s capital employed is around EUR 800 million to EUR 850 million, D&A guidance has not changed, and the project should still reach EBITDA breakeven next year, while U.S. market attractiveness and possible government support remain part of future growth considerations.