Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

For Q2 2026, Octave reported a net loss to shareholders of $14.4 million, or $0.33 per share, versus a loss of $20.5 million, or $0.42 per share, in Q2 2025. Consolidated EBITDA was negative $1.7 million and adjusted EBITDA to shareholders was positive $3.7 million, both improved from negative $9.8 million and negative $4.6 million a year ago. Consolidated adjusted net loss to shareholders was $1.8 million, or $0.04 per share, versus a loss of $10.6 million, or $0.22 per share, last year. Insurance Distribution revenue grew 77% to $58.4 million, and adjusted EBITDA to shareholders rose nearly fourfold to $9.8 million with margin of 16.8%; Everspan produced $1.8 million of adjusted EBITDA, with gross/net premiums written and premiums earned of $95 million/$23 million/$22 million and a combined ratio of 100.6%. Guidance was updated so Insurance Distribution organic growth is now expected at 25%+ and adjusted EBITDA at $45 million, while Everspan adjusted EBITDA is now expected at $6 million. Adjusted net income per share guidance was lowered to $0.15-$0.20, and management said 2026 should still be the first year of positive adjusted net income per share excluding the legacy financial guarantee business.

Claude LeBlanc framed the quarter as evidence of strong momentum across the platform and disciplined execution. He emphasized the scale-up of the Insurance Distribution business, the improving performance of Everspan, and the value of a diversified portfolio across A&H, Specialty P&C, and select property lines. He also highlighted AI as a meaningful operational advantage, citing submit-to-quote time reduced from several hours to about 7 minutes, and said the company is well positioned for profitable growth through market cycles.

David Trick focused on the financial improvement and the specific drivers behind it. He highlighted the year-over-year improvement in net loss, EBITDA, and adjusted net loss, then pointed to Insurance Distribution’s 77% revenue growth, $9.8 million of adjusted EBITDA to shareholders, and improved 16.8% margin. He also noted Everspan’s loss ratio improved to 61.4% and the combined ratio to 100.6%, while corporate GAAP expenses fell to $12 million from $14 million and adjusted expenses declined to $7.9 million from $8.3 million. On guidance, he said the Insurance Distribution raise reflects continued momentum, while Everspan’s lower EBITDA outlook mainly reflects higher acquisition costs tied to newer programs and the adjusted EPS cut reflects interest expense, depreciation, taxes, and noncontrolling interests.

Analysts pressed management on the startup MGA pipeline, capacity, property and excess liability pricing, AI rollout costs, Everspan underwriting quality, and profit commissions. Management said 2026 still likely includes only 1-2 MGA launches, with 2027 expected to be modest at 2-4 launches, while the class of 2024/2025 MGAs are still early in scaling and should contribute more EBITDA into 2027 and beyond. On capacity, management said strong underwriting results are supporting partner appetite; on property, they described 10%-20% rate declines in larger/cat-exposed lines but said their SME-heavy mix is seeing more muted pressure; and on Everspan they said excess liability pricing remains positive and above loss cost, with tighter oversight, more senior talent, and claims/audit monitoring helping underwriting quality. They also said AI and technology investments are in the low-to-mid-single-digit millions this year, with some costs rolling off early next year.