A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S

Reported second-quarter revenue was $15.8 billion, up 20% year over year. EBITDA was $3 billion and EBIT was $1.6 billion; free cash flow was $549 million versus negative $373 million a year ago. In Ocean, revenue was $10.5 billion, up 23% year over year; loaded volumes rose 4.1% to 3.4 million FFE; average loaded freight rates increased 22% year over year and 32% sequentially; EBITDA was $2 billion and EBIT was $935 million. Logistics & Services revenue increased 15% to $4.2 billion and EBIT rose 24% to $217 million, with EBIT margin at 5.1%. Terminals revenue rose 11% to $1.4 billion, EBIT was $458 million, and return on invested capital was 14.8%. Full-year guidance was upgraded to underlying EBITDA of $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion, underlying EBIT of $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion, and positive free cash flow. CapEx guidance remained $10 billion to $11 billion for '25 to '26 and the same for '26 to '27.

Vincent Clerc said demand remained very resilient despite Gulf conflict and tariff noise, driven by exports from Asia and increasingly by industrial goods tied to electrification, energy infrastructure, and data centers. He argued that the bigger issue has shifted from ship capacity to landside bottlenecks—ports, trucking, rail, waterways—and said those constraints are creating more frequent rate spikes. His tone was confident and upbeat, but also explicit that volatility will remain high and that the market has become structurally tighter and more congested.

Robert Erni emphasized that stronger earnings were driven mainly by Ocean, with higher spot rates and volumes improving profitability and cash generation. He highlighted operating cash flow of $2.3 billion, cash conversion of 75%, gross CapEx of $931 million, and a strong balance sheet with $18.5 billion of cash and deposits and a net cash position of $1.5 billion. He also pointed to higher working capital from receivables and bunker inventory as the main reason free cash flow lagged EBITDA, and said shareholder returns totaled $367 million, mostly through buybacks.

Analysts focused on the Red Sea/Suez return, Ocean capacity and capital allocation, rate volatility, and whether the market strength reflected real demand or prebuying. Management said about 1/3 of normal Suez services are now sailing, that the decision is based on daily security assessments and not 'testing the water,' and that the short-term return through Suez should help costs more than prices because bottlenecks are now mainly landside. On capital allocation, Clerc said Maersk will need to keep renewing and modestly growing its fleet if it wants to protect position and navigate a more benign but volatile rate environment. He also rejected the idea that prebuying was driving demand, saying the growth looked like real underlying demand, especially from industrial verticals tied to electrification.