Aperam S.A.

No quarterly revenue, EPS, or gross margin figures were stated on the call. Management said Q1 2026 EBITDA should be higher than Q4, and that the first half should run at about a $100 million quarterly EBITDA run rate, with a slower start in Q1 and acceleration in Q2. They also said normalized EBITDA guidance is EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million, down from a prior EUR 800 million view because the bridge now assumes only part of the EUR 300 per tonne margin gap versus prior averages is recovered. Capex for 2026 was said to be around EUR 200 million, including EUR 160 million of site-upgrade capex over three years, and the company said Brazil’s EBITDA of EUR 75 million was a low-cycle level after an unusually weak 2024.

Sudhakar Sivaji emphasized that the business is entering 2026 with seasonal recovery in Europe, but not with a dramatic change in demand patterns. He repeatedly framed the outlook around trade-defense measures, CBAM, and the company’s own Leadership Journey investments, saying the strategy is to move toward specialties while modernizing the asset base. His tone was cautiously constructive: the company sees upside from policy and operational levers, but he stressed that the annual outlook is still constrained by short-term market noise, imports, and the short duration of the order book.

Nicolas Changeur said nickel has only a moderate impact on Aperam because the stainless business mainly uses scrap, while LME-linked nickel exposure is limited to the fuel alloys business and is fully hedged. He also quantified the Brazil tariff change as a positive impact of mid-single-digit EBITDA per quarter, with timing expected toward the end of Q2 and beginning of Q3. On the investment side, he confirmed that the EUR 160 million of site-upgrade capex is included in the EUR 200 million 2026 capex figure, and said similar capex levels could continue in 2027 and 2028 if there are no new growth opportunities.

Analysts focused on Europe’s order books, import surges, CBAM behavior, and nickel exposure. Management said the Q4 import surge likely created a temporary H1 overhang, but also argued that a 7% to 10% utilization lift could come simply from imports being displaced by domestic supply. On CBAM, management said it is too early to draw conclusions, but that default values are the reference standard and that any real-value declarations require accreditation; on nickel, they said the stainless business is largely insulated because of scrap usage and hedging.