Aperam S.A.

No quarterly revenue, EPS, or gross margin figures were stated on the call. Management instead focused on outlook: Q1 2026 EBITDA is expected to be higher than Q4, first-half 2026 EBITDA should reach a $100 million run rate in two steps, and the company gave normalized EBITDA guidance of EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million. They also said Brazil delivered EUR 75 million EBITDA and described that as the low end of the cycle, while 2026 CapEx is expected to be around EUR 200 million, including EUR 160 million of site-upgrade CapEx over 3 years.

Sudhakar Sivaji’s tone was cautious but constructive: he repeatedly framed near-term Europe as seasonal rather than a true demand rebound, while arguing that the main support for the year comes from Leadership Journey actions, trade defense, and CBAM. He stressed that imported inventory built up in Q4, likely creating a temporary H1 overhang, but said the company remains confident the EU safeguard process will still start on 1 July 2026. He also emphasized that new investments are both diversification and productivity upgrades, designed to keep Aperam competitive through both low and high cycles.

Nicolas Changeur said nickel has only a moderate impact on stainless pricing because Aperam mainly uses scrap, and LME-linked nickel exposure is mostly in the fuel alloys business where the company is fully hedged. He said the EUR 160 million of site-upgrade CapEx is fully included in the EUR 200 million 2026 CapEx plan, and continuity CapEx is around EUR 150 million. On profitability, he said Brazil duties should add a positive impact of about mid-single-digit EBITDA per quarter, while the alloys business is expected to ramp through 2026 to reach the cited run rate by year-end.

Analysts focused on Europe demand, CBAM behavior, nickel, capacity utilization, Brazil duties, and the bridge to normalized EBITDA. Management said there is no clear abnormal import behavior yet under CBAM, but the first month is too early to establish a pattern, and it noted that retroactive payments in 2027 reduce the near-term visibility of any importer risk-taking. On utilization, management said current rates are around 65% to 75% and that Aperam has spare capacity to benefit quickly from the expected 7% to 10% lift if imports are replaced by domestic supply.