Axtel, S.A.B. de C.V.

Fourth-quarter revenue decreased 1% year over year, while full-year 2025 revenue increased 7%. Q4 EBITDA was MXN 833 million, down 30% year over year, and full-year EBITDA increased 3% with a 31% EBITDA margin. Q4 cost of revenues excluding D&A fell 5%, lifting contribution margin to 66% from 65%, and full-year contribution margin was stable at 71%. Cash flow was positive $40 million in Q4 and positive $80 million for the full year, with year-end net debt of $456 million and net debt-to-EBITDA of 2.3x. For 2026, Axtel expects revenues of MXN 12,850 million, comparable EBITDA of MXN 3,800 million, CapEx of approximately $83 million, cash flow generation of more than $60 million, interest expense of about $45 million, and net debt-to-EBITDA of approximately 2x by year-end.

Armando de la Pena framed 2025 as a year of resilience and strategic positioning, emphasizing record annual operating cash flow, a 24% expansion in the Enterprise pipeline, and strong growth in Government and Wholesale. He said Axtel is investing ahead of AI and data-center demand through the Querétaro-McAllen route, the McAllen Data Center alliance, and expanded cross-border connectivity, while also centralizing AI efforts and simplifying the organization in 2026 after executive retirements. His tone was constructive but measured, with repeated acknowledgement that project cycles are taking months to crystallize and that the company must keep focusing on cross-sell, upsell, and disciplined execution.

Adrian de los Santos highlighted balance-sheet repair and financing progress: Axtel prepaid $55 million of its syndicated bank loan, refinanced nearly $90 million through a new 10-year Bancomext loan, and shifted its debt mix to 60% pesos and 40% dollars. He said Fitch upgraded the rating from BB- to BB with a stable outlook, and he expects 2026 interest expense of $45 million, down $5 million from last year. He also cited Q4 revenue down 1%, EBITDA of MXN 833 million, full-year cash flow of $80 million, CapEx of $86 million, year-end cash of $73 million, and net debt of $456 million, while noting management plans to refinance remaining 2027-2028 maturities before the end of Q3 2026.

Analysts pressed management on why 2026 revenue guidance looks conservative, and the answer was that corporate clients are taking much longer to decide, especially on upgrades and cybersecurity, while demand is centered on cost optimization rather than expansion. On infrastructure, management said the new Querétaro-McAllen fiber route and the Trans American Fiber alliance should create opportunities with hyperscalers, carriers, and AI/data-center customers, but some deals may take months to materialize. On enterprise competition, management said Axtel competes through its network, certified engineers, and B2B focus, and that customers often return after leaving for lower prices when service quality disappoints. On refinancing, management said the remaining maturities due in 2027 and 2028 are expected to be taken out this year, ideally before the end of Q3.