Banco del Bajío, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple

BanBajío reported full-year 2025 net income of MXN 9.1 billion, with Q4 net income of MXN 2.2 billion. Total revenues were MXN 25 billion, down 2.6% year over year, while the full-year efficiency ratio was 39.8% and Q4 efficiency was 43.5%. ROAE was 19.4% for the year and 18.1% for the quarter; ROAA was 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively. The total loan portfolio reached MXN 278 billion, up 4.6% year over year, deposits reached MXN 273 billion, up 10.5%, and the NPL ratio improved to 1.49% with a 126.5% coverage ratio. Full-year cost of risk was 0.96% and Q4 cost of risk was 0.75%, while the preliminary capitalization ratio was 15.5% and composed entirely of CET1. For 2026, management guided to loan growth of 8% to 10%, deposit growth of 10% to 11%, NIM of 5.4% to 5.5%, fee and trading income growth of 13% to 15%, operating expenses up 7% to 9%, efficiency of 43% to 45%, net income of MXN 8.25 billion to MXN 9 billion, ROAE of 16.5% to 18%, cost of risk of 80 to 100 basis points, NPL below 1.7%, coverage above 1.1x, and capitalization above 14%.

Edgardo del Rincón said the bank is entering 2026 with a healthier portfolio and a more active growth plan, but not by loosening risk standards. He emphasized that asset quality remains a cornerstone of strategy, that the loan-growth plan is supported by more specialized business units and SME centers, and that the bank is trying to win customers through service and segment specialization rather than aggressive pricing. His tone was constructive and confident, especially on the medium-term opportunity to gain share in corporate and SME lending.

Joaquín Domínguez focused on the financial mechanics behind the outlook, noting that the bank maintained 20 basis points of sensitivity through 2025 and is using 2026 guidance based on fourth-quarter balance sheet composition. He highlighted a 4.94% cost of funds in Q4, down 169 basis points year over year and 50 basis points sequentially, and explained that deposit mix, especially zero-cost deposits, helped funding costs. He also said the forecast assumes current asset and deposit composition, so changes in mix could move NIM and sensitivity either way.

Analysts pressed management on whether the 0.8% to 1% cost-of-risk guide implied more risk appetite, but management said no and pointed to fewer Stage 3 migrations and the planned use of MXN 333 million of excess reserves over the next six months. They also asked about dividends; management said the board approved a proposal for a 50% payout of 2025 net profits, split between May and September, with a possible additional dividend to be considered in the third quarter. Other questions focused on NIM pressure, loan-growth upside, USMCA timing, branch expansion, and interchange-fee regulation; management said the 2026 NIM guide reflects the year-end balance sheet, loan growth is expected to be stronger in the second half, and interchange-fee caps could be a short-term positive for BanBajío’s numbers even if negative for the market.