Banco BPM S.p.A.

Banco BPM reported 2025 net profit of EUR 2.8 billion, which management said was EUR 130 million above the last-quarter guidance. Giuseppe Castagna said net income was EUR 1.880 billion excluding Anima-related one-offs, up 20% year on year on a like-for-like basis, and that pro forma net profit with full Anima consolidation would have been EUR 2.120 billion. Pro forma CET1 was 13.76% at year-end, and shareholder remuneration for 2024-2025 totaled EUR 3 billion. Revenue mix shifted further toward fees, with net fees and commissions up 21% to EUR 2.5 billion, total revenues near EUR 6 billion, cost/income at 46%, gross NPE ratio at 2.2%, net NPE at 1.2%, and cost of risk at 40 bps. For 2026, management said NII should stay “slightly above EUR 3 billion,” cost of risk guidance remains 43 bps, and tax rate guidance is around 33% including the new budget-law effects.

Giuseppe Castagna framed the year as proof that Banco BPM’s new business model is working, with a more balanced split between interest income and commissions and a more durable earnings profile. He repeatedly emphasized that the bank is already ahead of plan on several metrics, including profitability, capital, cost discipline and credit quality, and said there is room for overperformance in the plan horizon. His tone was confident but not aggressive on upgrading guidance, especially for 2026-2027, where he preferred to wait for more quarters before revising targets upward.

Edoardo Ginevra focused on capital, liquidity and funding. He said the financial component improved materially, with net financial result moving to EUR 48 million from negative EUR 82 million, helped by lower certificate costs, and that the bond portfolio was just below EUR 47 billion. Liquidity remained strong with cash near EUR 54 billion, direct funding above EUR 137 billion, LCR at 147%, NSFR at 126%, and MREL buffer at almost 7.7 percentage points. He also said the bank expects about 150 bps of capital creation from DTAs and fair value comprehensive income over 2026-2027, and described the January hedging transaction as a capital-efficiency move to avoid deductions on participations above the 10% threshold, adding 18 bps to CET1.

Analysts focused on NII durability, the contribution from household lending versus deposit growth, the size of the replicating portfolio, and whether 2026 revenue guidance looked too conservative. Management said the replicating portfolio is back to the planned EUR 25 billion level and should be a tailwind in 2026, while also noting that deposit growth was very strong in 2025 and can support NII without extra risk. Questions also centered on governance and Crédit Agricole’s board representation; Castagna said bylaw changes are being made for broader minority representation and that ECB approval is needed for the bylaw change, but not because of any specific Crédit Agricole board member. Other questions covered systemic charges, which Ginevra quantified as around EUR 20 million per year for five years linked to Banca Progetto plus EUR 5 million-EUR 6 million for the insurance fund, and the January hedging transaction, which he said was done to avoid capital deductions rather than to generate P&L gains.