Bavarian Nordic A/S

Reported Q1 revenue was DKK 1.058 billion, versus DKK 294 million from Public Preparedness and DKK 721 million from Travel Health. Q1 EBITDA margin was 16%, and gross margin was 45%; management said the margin was affected by January site maintenance, a DKK 29 million reversal of an Encepur provision, and strong manufacturing performance. Travel Health was up 14% excluding discontinued partner revenue, with rabies growth of 23% in the U.S. and 29% in Germany, while Vimkunya contributed DKK 41 million. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to revenue of DKK 5.5 billion-DKK 5.7 billion and EBITDA margin of approximately 28%; Public Preparedness guidance was raised to DKK 2.3 billion-DKK 2.5 billion, with DKK 2 billion already secured.

Paul Chaplin framed Q1 as a strong start, emphasizing broad-based Travel Health momentum and the importance of the new BARDA order for Public Preparedness. He said the company sees no current travel-health impact from geopolitical risks and highlighted continued rollout of Vimkunya, including new approvals and launches in additional countries. His tone was constructive and confident, while acknowledging headwinds in the U.S. for Vimkunya tied to CDC publication timing and recommending-stocking behavior.

Henrik Juuel said the quarter was fully in line with expectations, with revenue of DKK 1.058 billion and EBITDA margin of 16%. He explained that gross margin of 45% reflected planned January maintenance downtime, the DKK 29 million Encepur provision reversal, and good production yields, and noted another similar Encepur-related release could come in Q2. On cash, he cited negative operating cash flow of DKK 752 million, more than DKK 500 million paid to GSK, and a quarter-end cash balance of about DKK 2.3 billion, or roughly DKK 2.2 billion after the remaining share buyback amount. He also reiterated that the share buyback is ongoing, with approximately DKK 350 million repurchased to date.

Analysts focused on whether Encepur wholesalers would rebuild inventory after the shelf-life extension, whether Vimkunya could still hit DKK 250 million if the CDC publication slips, and what the BARDA order means for 2027 visibility. Management said Encepur inventory at wholesalers is low and could support stronger-than-market growth if stocking normalizes, while Vimkunya guidance assumes U.S. publication during 2026 but is supported by stronger demand in Germany and the U.K. On BARDA, management said some revenue had shifted forward from 2027 into 2026, but they still expect a normalized Public Preparedness year in 2027; they also said pipeline programs like Lyme and EBV remain unadvanced because clinical work would lock in multi-year spend without enough visibility. On capital allocation, management said more cash raises the likelihood of additional buybacks, but M&A remains an option and any decision would be evaluated later in the year.