Central Asia Metals plc

H1 2026 revenue was $145.5 million, up from $99.5 million in H1 2025. EBITDA was $75.5 million versus $39.9 million a year ago, with a 52% margin. Adjusted free cash flow came in at $46.8 million, up 189% from $16.2 million, and cash at period-end was $97.2 million. EPS was up 330% period-on-period; management also cited a $1.4 million hedge loss and a $0.1 million FX hedge loss. For the year, CAML reiterated CapEx guidance of $14.5 million to $17.5 million and said it remains on track to meet 2026 production guidance at Kounrad (12,000 to 13,000 tonnes of cathode copper), Sasa (18,000 to 20,000 tonnes of zinc and 26,000 to 28,000 tonnes of lead), and exploration spend in Kazakhstan of $3 million to $3.5 million.

Gavin Ferrar framed the quarter as a strong operational and financial period, driven by high copper and zinc prices, better performance at Sasa, and continued strength at Kounrad. He emphasized that CAML’s investment case is now broader, combining cash generation, shareholder returns, and growth optionality through Kazakhstan exploration, Aberdeen Minerals, and the proposed Cygnus transaction. His tone was upbeat but disciplined, repeatedly stressing balanced capital allocation and that the company will protect financial flexibility while funding growth.

Louise Wrathall said the results were materially supported by commodity prices, noting copper was 39% higher on average year over year and zinc was 26% higher, while treatment charges fell to $2.7 million from $4.9 million. She highlighted that revenue increased 46%, cost of sales rose by about $10 million, EBITDA increased 89%, and EPS rose 330%; she also pointed to a $9 million swing in the share-based payment liability and higher tax from stronger Kounrad profits and a Kazakh withholding tax rate increase to 15%. On cash and capital allocation, she cited $71 million of cash generated from operations, $19.8 million of tax and withholding tax paid, $4.8 million of buybacks completed, and $97 million of cash at period-end, while reiterating full-year CapEx guidance of $14.5 million to $17.5 million.

Analysts focused mainly on capital allocation, asking how the dividend might evolve after the Cygnus close and how much development spending could be required. Management said the 8p dividend was set in the middle of policy, that a larger share count after Cygnus could dilute per-share payouts, and that any Chibougamau development spend should be modest at first, with heavier spend likely only when a DFS starts in the latter half of 2027 and into 2028. Questions on Sasa centered on whether the cost-cutting program had further room; management said it is still improving the asset but suggested keeping costs broadly flat in the near term. On timing for Chibougamau’s PEA, management said it could be around Q2 or Q3 next year, with budget likely in the millions rather than tens of millions.