Genius Sports Limited

Genius Sports reported Q1 group revenue growth of 31% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 21%, with Betting revenue up 33% and Media revenue up 22%. Management said Europe, the Americas and Rest of World each grew more than 25% year over year. For Q2 2026, the company expects group revenue of approximately $185 million and group adjusted EBITDA of $45 million. For full-year 2026, guidance is group revenue of $990 million to $1.01 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $270 million to $280 million. Management also said the Legend deal increases the 2026 EBITDA margin expectation from 23% to 28%.

Mark Locke framed the quarter as evidence of a durable compounding model and emphasized that the business is built for predictable growth through renewals, product expansion, and regulated-market discipline. He highlighted Legend, GeniusIQ, AI automation, and the Moment Engine as the main strategic accelerants, saying they expand addressable market and improve margins at the same time. His tone was upbeat and confident, but he repeatedly noted that Legend is still early and that the market is not yet fully valuing the combined story.

Bryan Castellani focused on the reported numbers, saying Q1 was balanced growth across both segments and that the Legend financing came at an $825 million Term Loan A priced at SOFR plus 350 basis points. He said the company intentionally sized debt $25 million below the original structure, citing confidence in free cash flow and a focus on deleveraging. On cash flow, he said Q2 should be the low point because of seasonality plus one-time acquisition costs, while the second half should generate about $100 million of total cash flow, with 50% to 55% conversion of the roughly $200 million of adjusted EBITDA expected in that period.

Analysts focused on whether the new guidance includes Legend synergies, and management said it does not; Bryan said the guide is in line with February and only reflects what is currently in hand, while synergies will be layered in later as they become visible. Questions also centered on prediction markets, NFL-related data rights, and whether the market is becoming a larger opportunity; Mark said the company already has revenue from market makers, sees advertising upside, and expects the regulatory environment to move toward official data. On cash flow, Bryan clarified that Q2 is expected to be the trough and that Q3/Q4 are the cleaner read on the combined business, with optionality to delever or invest by year-end.