Intact Financial Corporation

Q4 net operating income per share was $5.50, up 12% year over year; full-year NOI per share was $19.21, up 33%. Q4 combined ratio was 85.9%, improving 0.6 points year over year, and the full-year combined ratio was 88.2%, improving 4 points. Operating ROE was 19.5% over the last 12 months, and book value per share rose 16% to $107.35. Underlying current accident year loss ratio improved 0.5 point to 55.9% in Q4; favorable prior year development was 5.5% in the quarter. Catastrophe losses were $69 million in Q4 and $844 million for the full year. Expense ratio was 34.4% in Q4 and 34% for the full year. Net investment income was $415 million in Q4, and management expects more than $1.6 billion in 2026. Looking ahead, the company maintained 2026 annual catastrophe loss expectations at $1.2 billion, with 75% allocated to Canada. Management also reiterated a 33% to 34% expense ratio guide, expects at least 10% annual distribution income growth in 2026 and beyond, and said acquisition, integration and restructuring costs should be lower in 2026 than in 2025. The quarterly dividend was increased 11% to $1.47.

Charles Brindamour framed the quarter as evidence that Intact’s model is still compounding through three levers: organic growth, margin expansion, and capital deployment. He emphasized that the company’s risk selection, scale, and market positioning are driving a structurally higher ROE in the upper teens, and he said the business should continue to outperform the industry on both growth and underwriting. His tone was confident and explicit that the platform has more runway, especially as AI, distribution, and M&A create additional opportunities.

Kenneth Anderson focused on the earnings quality and balance sheet. He cited Q4 combined ratio of 85.9%, underlying current accident year loss ratio of 55.9%, favorable PYD of 5.5%, and catastrophe losses of $69 million in the quarter and $844 million for the year. He also highlighted 34.4% Q4 expense ratio, $415 million of operating net investment income, $3.7 billion of total capital margin, and an improved adjusted debt-to-total-capital ratio of 16.5%. He said the company ended 2025 with strong capital generation, deployed $200 million for buybacks over the last 6 months, renewed NCIB capacity up to 3% of shares, and still wants to keep dry powder for attractive M&A while being opportunistic on repurchases.

Analysts pressed on AI disruption, large-account competition, expense ratio stagnation, ROE targets, capital deployment, and the pace of UK&I recovery. Management said AI is more likely to change digital shopping, advice, and distribution than the core physical claims process, while also helping risk selection and claims; they said they are actively making sure Intact brands surface in search and LLM channels. On competition, management said pressure is concentrated in large accounts, while SME and mid-market remain stickier; on UK&I, they said growth should turn positive in 2026 but the business is still being integrated and repositioned. On capital, they said the balance sheet supports both buybacks and M&A, with deployable capital in the $4 billion to $5 billion zone before needing equity, and the 500-basis-point ROE outperformance target remains under review but unchanged for now.