ING Groep N.V.

ING said total income increased 10% year on year and 8% quarter on quarter, driven by stronger commercial NII and fee income. Commercial NII rose EUR 114 million quarter on quarter and was 10.7% higher year on year; fee income was up 14% year on year; ROTE reached 17% in the second quarter; EPS increased 16% year on year; and CET1 improved to 13.1%. Net core lending increased EUR 15.2 billion and net core deposits increased EUR 15.9 billion, while total risk costs were EUR 279 million, or 15 basis points of average customer lending. For 2026, management now expects commercial NII of EUR 16.8 billion to EUR 17 billion, fee income of EUR 5 billion, all other income of EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 2.7 billion, total income of more than EUR 24.5 billion, and ROTE of more than 15%. For 2027, it now expects fee income of EUR 5.3 billion to EUR 5.5 billion, total income of more than EUR 26 billion, and ROTE of more than 16%; the full year expense outlook was reiterated.

Steven van Rijswijk framed the quarter as proof that ING's strategy is working: more customers, deeper primary relationships, more cross-sell, and better operating leverage. He emphasized the “self-reinforcing cycle” of customer growth, earnings growth, capital generation, and shareholder returns, and said the bank is already ahead of some 2024 Capital Markets Day targets. His tone was confident and upbeat, especially on the outlook for mobile primary customers, fee income, and ROTE.

Ida Lerner highlighted that total income rose 10% year on year, commercial NII was up 10.7% year on year, fee income grew 14%, and costs excluding regulatory costs and incidental items were up 4.2% year on year, while year-to-date cost growth was 2.7% and in line with full-year guidance. She pointed to EUR 279 million of risk costs in the quarter, CET1 at 13.1%, and EUR 2.4 billion of quarterly RWA reduction, including about EUR 1 billion from an SRT transaction and EUR 2.8 billion from model updates. On capital allocation, she said the policy is unchanged: pay out 50% of net profit as regular dividend, invest first in profitable growth, then in add-on M&A if criteria are met, and return structural excess capital above 13% CET1 to shareholders.

Analysts focused on whether deposit/liability margin momentum can continue, how durable the strong deposit growth is in competitive markets like Germany and Belgium, and whether ING's capital-return policy implies 100% of earnings are reserved rather than distributed. Management said Q2 deposit strength was helped by normal seasonal flows and targeted below-the-line campaigns, especially in Germany, and that the liability margin rose to 107 basis points with an expectation to be above 110 basis points in 2027 and 2028. On capital, management clarified that reserving 100% of net results outside CET1 is not the same as paying out 100%; the regular dividend policy remains 50%, with additional distributions still assessed periodically. Questions also probed the private banking strategy, where management said the goal is to broaden and deepen customer relationships, not just buy scale, and the 40% stake in Singular is meant to accelerate learning and commercial cooperation in Spain.