Intrum AB (publ)

Income was down 7% year on year in Q4, driven almost entirely by FX, and the investment book was also smaller partly because of FX. Adjusted EBIT was largely unchanged as lower income was offset by cost reductions. The goodwill write-down was SEK 2.9 billion, versus a preannounced SEK 3.1 billion, with the difference mainly due to FX and small WACC adjustments. Servicing income was down 3% year on year, including 1% organic growth; servicing adjusted EBIT was up 31% for full-year 2025 versus full-year 2024. Investing income was down 11% year on year for 2025 and 17% in Q4 versus Q4 2024. Collection performance remained above forecast at 109%, and ERC at year-end was SEK 46 billion. Forward guidance: for 2026, management guided to 5% lower underlying costs versus 2025, servicing income expected to be largely flat because of FX headwinds, and portfolio investments slightly lower than in 2025. The company expects to redeem or repay the 2027 second-lien maturities with the January portfolio-sale proceeds plus organic cash flow, and to refinance the other 2027 maturities in the first half of 2026. Longer term, management targets net debt reduction of SEK 10 billion-SEK 15 billion by 2030, leverage of 3x on the new definition, and servicing EBIT margin of 30%-35% by 2030.

Johan Akerblom framed the quarter as evidence that the business is improving underneath the surface, with continued progress in servicing, investing, and balance-sheet repair. He said the strategic review was needed because the 2023 plan has been overtaken by events, and that the new strategy is meant to reset the foundation through deleveraging, derisking, and a stronger 2030 operating model. His tone was constructive and confident, especially around the idea that technology, data, and AI can make the company more scalable and less risky over time.

Masih Yazdi emphasized that the year-on-year income decline was mostly FX-driven, while adjusted EBIT held up because cost cuts offset the pressure. He pointed to the SEK 2.9 billion goodwill write-down, the annualized SEK 1.6 billion reduction in underlying costs, and year-end FTEs of around 8,500, saying the cost-down program is being driven mainly by personnel reductions. He also said 2026 cost guidance implies another 5% reduction from 2025, that implementation costs should fit within that target, and that CapEx is not expected to rise materially versus history.

Analysts pressed management on what would drive servicing margin expansion, and Masih said the early years will be mainly driven by lower costs, with revenue growth and scale becoming more important later. Questions also focused on automation, where management said less than 10% of collections are automated today, and on whether the new leverage target uses cash EBITDA; Masih clarified it uses EBITDA, not cash EBITDA. Management was also asked about potential divestments and JVs, and said they would be opportunistic but very sensitive to selling below book value, while keeping an eye on whether accelerating cash helps deleveraging more than waiting for future cash flows.