InPost S.A.

In Q2 2026, InPost handled 381 million parcels, up 16% year on year. Revenue rose 18.2% to PLN 4.2 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increased 4.4% to PLN 1.043 billion; adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 25%. Adjusted EBIT fell 19.3% and adjusted net profit fell 50%, mainly due to a higher depreciation base and a less favorable FX comparison. CapEx increased 7% to PLN 504 million. On the balance sheet, gross debt was PLN 10.7 billion, cash was PLN 613 million, net debt was PLN 10.1 billion, and net leverage increased to 2.5x from 2.2x at the end of 2025. For full-year 2026, management now expects group volume growth in the mid-teens, revenue growth in the mid-teens, adjusted EBITDA to decline by a mid-single digit percentage, margin around the mid-20s, CapEx of around PLN 2.1 billion, negative free cash flow at year-end, and net leverage to increase versus last year. For Q3 2026, management expects low single-digit group volume growth.

Rafal Brzoska characterized Q2 as a quarter of continued growth, but one where the picture was “more mixed” than prior quarters because strong Eurozone performance was offset by the ongoing U.K. transformation. He emphasized network scale and customer preference, noting record APM deployment, more than 100,000 out-of-home points, and strong consumer loyalty in Poland. His tone was confident and strategic, with repeated emphasis on shifting the network mix toward APMs and using InPost’s service quality to win more door-to-door business as well.

Javier van Engelen focused on the financial trade-offs of the growth strategy. He highlighted that revenue outpaced volume, but adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 25%, adjusted EBIT and adjusted net profit declined, CapEx rose to PLN 504 million, and leverage increased to 2.5x because of higher borrowings, lease liabilities, and negative free cash flow. He said half of the H1 negative cash flow is investment-driven and half is temporary, citing temporary working-capital effects from tax payments in Poland and longer receivables in France that he expects to recover in the second half.

The main analyst concern was the EU de minimis rule and the impact of lower Chinese parcel volumes on mix and margins. Management said InPost is not heavily concentrated in Chinese volumes, that the effect is roughly in line with what they see in certain markets, and that the outlook revision for volume is driven by Chinese volumes by about 2% to 3%; they added that the margin impact will depend on whether the lost volume shifts to other platforms or to B2C. In follow-up, they said Poland’s mix could change depending on where that volume goes, while Rafal added that InPost is becoming a first-choice door-to-door vendor, including for B2B parcels, thanks to service quality.