Mineral Resources Limited

MinRes reported record underlying EBITDA of approximately $1.2 billion on revenue of $3.1 billion for the half, with free cash flow of $293 million after capex of $600 million. Mining Services generated EBITDA of $488 million, up 29% year on year, and iron ore underlying EBITDA was $573 million, of which $519 million came from Onslow Iron; lithium delivered EBITDA of $167 million at an average SC6 equivalent price of USD 972 a tonne. Net debt declined by almost $0.5 billion to approximately $4.9 billion, liquidity increased to over $1.4 billion, and the company refinanced its USD 700 million bond to April 2031 at a 7% coupon. Management reiterated full-year sustaining capex around $500 million, said the POSCO transaction is expected to close in the first half of calendar 2026 and bring in approximately $1.1 billion, and said Onslow capacity should move toward a 38 million tonne run rate now, with an aspiration to sweat assets toward 40 million tonnes over time.

Chris Ellison framed the period as a validation of MinRes’ strategy, saying the company delivered its strongest six months ever despite softer commodity prices. He emphasized operational execution at Onslow Iron, improving lithium recoveries, and the strength of the integrated Mining Services model. His tone was confident and expansionary, but he repeatedly tied growth plans to disciplined capital allocation and balance-sheet strength.

Mark Wilson said the earnings quality was driven by operational excellence, volume growth, cost discipline, and Onslow reaching nameplate rather than by commodity price luck. He highlighted Mining Services EBITDA of $488 million, only $24 million of sustaining capex in that division, free cash flow of $293 million, and liquidity of over $1.4 billion including more than $600 million of cash plus an undrawn $800 million revolver. He also noted the USD 700 million bond refinance at a 7% coupon and said the updated capital framework requires at least $1 billion of liquidity, leverage below 2x through the cycle, dividends only when thresholds are met, and a 20% post-tax ROIC hurdle for growth investment.

Analysts focused on how far Onslow could be pushed beyond 38 million tonnes, with management saying 38 million tonnes is the number to “hang your hat on” for now and that 40 million tonnes is more of a future goal as the system beds in. They also pressed on Wodgina, Mt. Marion, Bald Hill, and broader lithium capital spending, and Chris Ellison responded that the company is being cautious until leverage improves and demand proves durable, though Bald Hill may be a near-term option. Other questions covered Mining Services margins, sustaining capex, gas exploration, haul-road resilience after Cyclone Mitchell, and whether the company would use floor-priced lithium offtake deals; management said no to floor structures and said the haul road saw no damage from the cyclone.