Mineral Resources Limited

MinRes reported record first-half FY26 underlying EBITDA of approximately $1.2 billion on revenue of $3.1 billion. Free cash flow was $293 million after $600 million of capex, and net debt declined by almost $0.5 billion to approximately $4.9 billion; liquidity increased to over $1.4 billion, including more than $600 million in cash and an undrawn $800 million revolver. Mining Services EBITDA was $488 million, iron ore underlying EBITDA was $573 million, and lithium underlying EBITDA was $167 million; average SC6 equivalent lithium price was USD 972 a tonne. Management did not give next-quarter or full-year formal earnings guidance, but said Onslow Iron is at nameplate, two more transhippers are coming online from mid-year, and capacity is expected to move toward a 38 million tonne run rate, with an ambition to sweat assets toward around 40 million tonnes over time. The CFO said sustaining capex is still expected to be about $500 million a year, and the POSCO transaction is expected to close in the first half of calendar 2026, bringing in approximately $1.1 billion and helping push leverage below the 2x target by June.

Chris Ellison framed the half as a validation of MinRes’ long-term strategy, emphasizing that the result came from operational execution, not commodity price luck. He highlighted Onslow Iron as the core earnings engine, said the company has proven its integrated mine-to-port model, and pointed to strong momentum in Mining Services, lithium optionality, and capital recycling through partnerships. His tone was upbeat but still cautious on spending, repeatedly stressing that the company will keep focus on safety, guidance delivery, and balance-sheet repair before pursuing bigger growth moves.

Mark Wilson emphasized that the result was built on “operational excellence, volume growth, cost discipline” and the successful ramp of Onslow Iron, not unusually high prices. He cited Mining Services EBITDA of $488 million, iron ore EBITDA of $573 million, lithium EBITDA of $167 million, and sustaining capex of only $24 million in Mining Services, while reaffirming a longer-run sustaining capex expectation of about $500 million a year. He also detailed liquidity of over $1.4 billion, more than $600 million in cash, an undrawn $800 million revolver, the refinancing of a USD 700 million bond at a 7% coupon due April 2031, and a capital allocation framework that keeps leverage below 2x through the cycle and requires liquidity and leverage thresholds before dividends are paid.

Analysts focused on how far Onslow Iron can run above 38 million tonnes, with management saying 38 is the number to “hang your hat on” now and that getting toward 40 million tonnes will be incremental and dependent on bedding-in, dredging, and timing of the new transhippers. Questions also probed Wodgina, Mt Marion, Bald Hill, and other lithium growth projects; management said it is being deliberately cautious, wants more evidence that lithium demand is sustainable, and does not want to rush spending before the balance sheet is in better shape. On commercial strategy, management rejected using lithium floor-price offtake structures, said POSCO terms are being left as agreed, and reiterated that future capital will be balanced against 20%+ ROIC opportunities and the company’s leverage goals.