Mondi plc

Mondi reported 2025 underlying EBITDA of EUR 1 billion, versus EUR 1,049 million in the prior year, and cash generated from operations of EUR 1.072 billion, up year on year. Management said sales volumes rose, while lower containerboard prices were more than offset by weaker uncoated fine paper and pulp pricing; labor inflation was the main cost increase, while input costs were flat overall. Net debt ended the year at EUR 2.6 billion, equal to 2.6x leverage, and the Board recommended a total ordinary dividend of EUR 0.2825 per share. For 2026, cash capex is expected to be about EUR 550 million, below the prior EUR 650 million guide, and management expects working fixed costs and input costs to be broadly flat, with about EUR 100 million of maintenance downtime split roughly EUR 20 million in H1 and EUR 80 million in H2.

Andrew King framed the year as a resilient result in a prolonged cyclical downturn and emphasized that Mondi is not waiting for a market recovery. He highlighted cost discipline, plant closures, productivity, operational excellence, and footprint optimization as the main self-help levers, while saying the group’s integrated asset base and sustainable packaging positioning should capture upside as markets improve. His tone was cautious on near-term conditions but confident on the structural growth story and the company’s competitive position.

Mike Powell focused on the financial resilience of the year, especially the EUR 1.072 billion cash generation from operations and the EUR 83 million working capital inflow for the year. He noted that capex came in at EUR 673 million versus the prior guide of EUR 750 million to EUR 850 million, and that 2026 cash capex should be about EUR 550 million, with roughly EUR 50 million still to flow for growth projects and around EUR 500 million for base maintenance and optimization. He also said net debt finished at EUR 2.6 billion, liquidity is around EUR 1.3 billion, there are no debt maturities until 2028, Schumacher integration is on track, and expected cost synergies increased to EUR 32 million over 3 years from the original EUR 22 million.

Analysts pushed on plant closures, capex flexibility, leverage, and whether Mondi would consider countercyclical investments. Management said there are still more efficiency opportunities, but they are prioritizing financial flexibility and using the current environment to drive self-help rather than chase expansion. On cost assumptions, Powell said fixed costs should be flat in 2026 and input costs are also currently expected to be flat, despite about a EUR 60 million energy headwind from lower energy/emission credits. On the asset ramp-up, Andrew King said about another 300,000 tonnes could come through this year from projects, with Duino still ramping and Schumacher capacity to be utilized through above-market growth, particularly in e-commerce and other packaging applications.