MSCI Inc.

Q3 2026 results were strong: total revenue increased 12.4% year over year, ABF revenue increased 25%, subscription revenue increased 8%, adjusted EBITDA increased 12%, and adjusted EPS increased 14%. Total run rate grew 12%, supported by a record ABF run rate of almost $1 billion and nearly $55 million in recurring net new sales on the subscription side. Management said there were nearly $23 trillion of AUM benchmarked to MSCI indices, including roughly $15 trillion actively managed and $8 trillion indexed, with $76 billion of inflows into ETF and non-ETF products linked to MSCI indices. For guidance, MSCI said Q4 Sustainability and Climate recurring net new sales are expected to be roughly flat to slightly positive, full-year 2026 expense guidance is expected to land at the top end of the range, interest expense guidance was raised due to higher revolver balances tied to share repurchases, and the full-year tax rate guidance was narrowed to 18% to 19.5%.

Henry Fernandez emphasized that MSCI is expanding across traditional and newer client segments while transforming into an AI-first company. He framed AI as central to product development, client interaction, and the ability to create more models, data sets and use cases across portfolios, lending, insurance risk and wealth management. His tone was highly confident and long-term focused, repeatedly arguing that the company should prioritize growth and reinvestment over margin expansion.

Andy Wiechmann highlighted that momentum was broad-based and sustainable, with LTM recurring net new subscription sales up 26% and growth across Index, Analytics, PCS and non-asset-manager clients. He said third-quarter adjusted EBITDA expenses were in line with September expectations, but 2026 expenses are likely to finish at the top end of guidance because acquisitions should add about $20 million, performance stock option accruals about $15 million to $20 million, and severance about $10 million to $15 million more than originally planned. He also said interest expense guidance was increased because of higher revolver balances supporting opportunistic buybacks, and noted that headcount remained roughly flat despite four acquisitions.

Analysts pressed management on whether recent large deals and accelerating Index growth were sustainable or merely timing-related. Management said the pipeline remains robust, but quarter-to-quarter results will be lumpy because large strategic deals can slip between quarters; they urged investors to evaluate recurring net new sales and retention over multiple quarters rather than focus on one quarter. Several questions focused on AI and agentic workflows, and management said client adoption is early but accelerating, with MSCI building connectors to major LLM and cloud platforms while also pushing direct MSCI-controlled agentic experiences.