Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.

Mizuho reported that FY2024 first-half progress exceeded the final FY2025 target ahead of time. Management said forecast net business profit for FY24 is ¥1.17 trillion, up ¥100 billion. In the first half, low-profit deals were reduced by ¥1.1 trillion, high-profit business increased by ¥1.6 trillion, and RORA improved from 3.1% to 3.3%. Cross-shareholdings were reduced by ¥183.3 billion in the first half, and Employee Retirement Benefit Trust Fund exposure was reduced by ¥200 billion. The CET1 ratio was 10.5%, and the company announced a ¥130 dividend plus a share buyback of up to ¥100 billion. Management also said a 10 basis point rate rise could add ¥50 billion, and a one-yen yen depreciation would have a ¥4 billion impact on net business profit and a ¥3 billion impact on net income. Forward-looking, Kihara said the next three-year plan is being finalized, long-term ROE is on a rising trend, and he believes it should be above 9% in his view; he also said the company will keep balancing shareholder returns and growth investment.

Kihara’s main message was that Mizuho has entered a new phase: earnings are stronger, the capital position is healthier, and the firm can now pursue growth investment and shareholder return in a more balanced way. He emphasized a strategic shift toward customer-business-led revenue, stronger wealth management, tighter operational discipline, and more collaboration across regions, especially after Greenhill. His tone was upbeat but cautious, repeatedly warning that the firm must not become complacent given its improved performance and the need to avoid past mistakes.

Yonezawa’s commentary focused on execution against plan and the company’s financial discipline. He said RBC was roughly flat on net business profit but is carrying higher expenses due to upfront HR and digitization investment; CIBC was tracking above plan with strong demand for funding and corporate-action solutions; and banking outperformed in the first half but is being managed more cautiously in the second half given election and market uncertainty. He also framed expenses as under pressure from inflation, governance, and IT investment, but said these are being funded as planned while the group continues to control resources.

Analysts pressed on what the next priority is now that Greenhill integration, a 10.5% CET1 ratio, and the HR overhaul are largely in place. Kihara said the key challenges are asset and wealth management, stronger regional collaboration, and careful management of large corporate exposures and market risks; he also said Mizuho still has work to do in mid-cap and retail wealth. Questions on Rakuten Card centered on whether it would cannibalize Rakuten Bank and how much revenue disclosure would be provided. Management said the partnership is intended to be win-win, not cannibalistic, and that it is too early to disclose detailed synergies or revenue contribution; they said KPI progress will be tracked first. Analysts also asked about cross-shareholdings and capital allocation, and Kihara said sale gains will be used within the capital policy framework, with the balance between returns and growth investment remaining the core decision.