Aurubis AG

Aurubis reported first-9-month group revenue of EUR 17.8 billion, up 29% year over year, operating EBITDA of EUR 570 million, and operating EBT of EUR 374 million, up 31% year over year. Q3 operating EBT was EUR 149 million, up 23% versus Q2; net cash flow for the first 9 months was minus EUR 28 million versus plus EUR 357 million last year, and free cash flow before dividend was minus EUR 365 million versus minus EUR 211 million. Gross margin increased to around EUR 1.7 billion, up by roughly EUR 140 million, and operating ROCE improved to 9.4% from 9.1%. Management confirmed full-year guidance of EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million operating EBITDA, EUR 425 million to EUR 525 million operating EBT, operating ROCE of 10% to 12%, net cash flow above last year, and free cash flow before dividend at least break-even; they said operating EBT should be at the upper end of the range.

Toralf Haag framed the quarter as evidence that Aurubis’ multimetal model is working: higher metal prices, supportive sulfuric acid pricing, and better recycling performance offset pressure in concentrate TC/RCs. He sounded constructive on the underlying market and said CRH is ramping well, Pirdop’s tankhouse expansion is on track for autumn 2026, and the company is progressing through its strategic investment program. On Richmond, his tone was candid but confident: technical ramp-up issues and a different feed mix slowed the project, but he stressed the investment remains strategically right and that Aurubis is working through the issues.

Steffen Hoffmann focused on the financial bridge: operating EBT of EUR 149 million in Q3, year-to-date operating EBITDA of EUR 570 million, and gross margin of around EUR 1.7 billion, up roughly EUR 140 million. He attributed the weak quarter-end cash flow to a EUR 525 million increase in net working capital, tax payments of EUR 73 million, and investing cash outflows of EUR 322 million, while noting cash CapEx may end up below EUR 600 million versus the earlier implied level. He said the temporary inventory build should reverse by year-end, supporting net cash flow above last year and free cash flow before dividend at least at breakeven.

Analysts pressed management on why full-year EBT is still only guided to the upper end of the range despite helpful tailwinds in Q4; Hoffmann said Q4 should be broadly similar to Q3, but TC/RC pressure and seasonally higher costs will offset some of the upside from sulfuric acid and metals. The main Q&A theme was Richmond: management said lower EBITDA expectations reflect both higher costs and lower revenues from a less favorable feed mix, not just a temporary delay, and that the mid-term earnings profile has shifted out by one year. They also said Richmond’s capital employed is around EUR 800 million to EUR 850 million, D&A guidance has not changed, and the U.S. market remains attractive enough that Aurubis may still consider further growth projects, potentially with U.S. support.