Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.

Q2 revenue was $55.9 million, up 32.8%-33% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA was $34.5 million, with margin at 61.7% to 62%, up about 165 basis points from a year ago. Premium in force was $419 million, up 32%, policies in force were over 316,000, up 29%, and policy retention at renewal improved to 86%. On a trailing 12-month basis, revenue per employee reached $3 million and adjusted EBITDA per employee reached $1.8 million. The lifetime written loss ratio improved to 19.5%, down more than 500 basis points year over year. For 2026, management raised guidance to $199 million of revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 60%-61%; that outlook does not assume any acceleration from future FEMA actions or broader NFIP changes and incorporates below-average Atlantic hurricane season projections.

Trevor Burgess framed the quarter as Neptune’s strongest ever and emphasized momentum across distribution, product development, and AI. He said the company is using AI to “arm” agents, not replace them, and described Atlas+ as a way to turn agents into “super agents” by giving them real-time help and task prioritization. He also highlighted the FEMA Review Council as a potential catalyst, but stressed the quarter’s results were driven by Neptune’s own execution rather than policy changes.

Jim Steiner highlighted the financial quality of the quarter: $55.9 million of revenue, $34.5 million of adjusted EBITDA, and 61.7% margin, alongside an 86% renewal retention rate. He pointed to the business model as capital-light, with no underwriting risk and growth handled in software, which he said helps margins expand rather than compress. On capital allocation, he said Neptune ended the quarter with $240 million drawn on its $260 million revolver, about 2.1x trailing adjusted EBITDA, paid down $7 million after quarter-end to $233 million, repurchased $26 million in stock tied to a secondary offering and $6 million in the open market, and still has $94 million remaining under its $100 million repurchase authorization.

Analysts focused heavily on whether the FEMA Review Council report and possible flood-map modernization could materially expand Neptune’s addressable market. Management said the biggest near-term impact has been improved agent engagement and demand, but timing and implementation are uncertain and none of it is built into forecasts; they estimated that modernizing maps could eventually add about 5 million mandatory policies if current compliance ratios held. Questions also centered on improved economics from the two largest capacity programs, higher coverage limits, price elasticity, and AI oversight; management said the improved terms were worth about half a point on those programs, the quote-to-bind pricing model is already live and improving new business, and their AI tools are algorithmic rather than the kind of generative AI targeted by the Texas bulletin.