National Bank of Canada

Q1 2026 adjusted EPS was $3.25, up 11% year over year. Revenues rose 21% year over year and PTPP increased 23%; excluding CWB, revenues were up 11% and PTPP up 12%. ROE was 16.6% and CET1 ended at 13.74%. Loans were up 23% year over year, or 9% excluding CWB, and deposits were up $5 billion sequentially. Impaired PCLs were $215 million, or 28 bps, flat quarter over quarter and within the full-year guidance of 25 to 35 bps. Management raised 2026 EPS growth to the top end of 5% to 10% and lifted the 2026 ROE target to around 16%; it also reiterated a path to 17% plus ROE in 2027. P&C NIM is expected to remain relatively stable next quarter, with better deposit margin largely offset by balance sheet mix.

Laurent Ferreira emphasized that the quarter showed strength across retail, business, and capital markets, and tied the performance to CWB integration benefits, share buybacks, and organic growth. He said the bank is increasing its NCIB to up to 14.5 million shares and still aims to converge toward a 13% CET1 ratio by end-2027. His tone was confident but measured, repeatedly noting that the bank still sees upside in P&C and is only at an early stage in its strategic review.

Marie Chantal Gingras highlighted the financial outperformance: revenues up 21%, PTPP up 23%, operating leverage of 2%, and expenses up 10.2% mainly from variable compensation. She said nontrading net interest income grew 5% sequentially, the P&C margin expanded 2 bps sequentially, and CET1 ended at 13.74% after capital generation of 41 bps, partly offset by 33 bps from buybacks. On integration, she said $176 million of cost and funding synergies have been realized, ahead of the $135 million year-1 target, with $270 million expected by fiscal 2026 and $50 million of revenue synergies targeted by year-end.

Analysts focused heavily on the new segment ROE disclosure, especially why Canadian P&C is around 13% and how comparable that is to peers, and management said it reflects scale and is an area of upside under a new strategic review. Questions also probed whether stronger buybacks, synergies, and capital allocation changes justified the improved ROE targets; management pointed to a strong first quarter, continued synergy execution, and buybacks as the main drivers. Credigy drew questions about slower Q2 activity and margin effects from a large prepayment, and management said competitive pricing may slow deals in the near term, though full-year growth should stay within the long-term 5% to 10% range with stable margins.