Oatly Group AB

Q2 2026 net revenue increased 15.2% year over year, or 12.7% in constant currency. Volume grew 11.2% and price/mix added 1.5%, while foreign exchange was a 2.5% tailwind. Gross margin was 33.9%, up 140 basis points from last year’s second quarter, with 210 basis points from fixed-cost absorption and supply chain efficiencies, 30 basis points from product/channel mix, and 10 basis points from FX, partly offset by 100 basis points of inflation. Adjusted EBITDA was positive $0.4 million, an improvement of $4 million year over year, and free cash flow was a negative $0.6 million, improving by $4.6 million. By segment, Europe and International constant-currency revenue grew 18%, North America grew 5.9%, and Greater China grew 5.6%. For 2026, management raised constant-currency revenue growth guidance to 8%-10% from 3%-5%, kept adjusted EBITDA guidance toward the low end of $25 million-$35 million, said Middle East conflict cost pressure remains unchanged versus April expectations, and left CapEx guidance at $20 million-$30 million.

Jean-Christophe Flatin said the quarter validated Oatly’s growth playbook, with strong volume growth, positive mix, and expanded distribution in retail and food service. He emphasized that Oatly is evolving into a broader beverage company, with innovation, brand relevance, and new occasions driving growth. His tone was confident but cautious on costs, saying the company is still absorbing Middle East conflict pressure while investing for growth and aiming to improve structural profitability.

Marie-José David highlighted that Q2 gross margin reached 33.9%, up 140 basis points, and adjusted EBITDA was positive $0.4 million, up $4 million year over year. She said the EBITDA improvement came from a $13.7 million increase in gross profit, partly offset by a $9.7 million increase in SG&A and overhead tied to distribution costs, branding and advertising, and FX headwinds. She also said free cash flow was negative $0.6 million, better by $4.6 million, but reiterated the company does not expect positive full-year free cash flow in 2026 because of seasonality, higher inventories, and CapEx; CapEx guidance remains $20 million-$30 million.

Analysts focused on what drove the acceleration in revenue, why EBITDA guidance was not raised despite stronger sales, and how North American shelf space and competition are evolving. Management said growth is coming from both existing and new consumers, customers, and geographies, and pointed to stronger out-of-home momentum, penetration gains with younger consumers, and off-cycle retail distribution gains. On EBITDA, management said the forecast still assumes roughly the same Middle East conflict cost pressure as in Q2 and that increased reinvestment behind the growth playbook, especially in Europe and International, keeps guidance at the low end of the $25 million-$35 million range. They also said North America is gaining shelf share and that some competing brands are losing share, while Oatly sees further ACV and TDP opportunities into 2027.