PPC Ltd

For the 6 months ended September 2025, group revenue increased 6.2% to ZAR 5.4 billion. EBITDA rose 23.5% to ZAR 983 million, and EBITDA margin expanded by 2.6 percentage points to 18.3%. Adjusted headline EPS increased 32%. Free cash flow from operations increased 32% to ZAR 661 million, compared with ZAR 500 million in the prior period. ROIC improved to 13.4% from 7.1% a year ago. CapEx was ZAR 225 million, almost all maintenance. On guidance, management said group EBITDA and EBITDA margins are expected to increase in FY '26 versus FY '25. Zimbabwe EBITDA margin is expected to run at 25% to 30% in H2 FY '26 and be sustainable, while Zimbabwe is expected to deliver another record year with additional dividends in H2. FY '26 group CapEx guidance was reduced to ZAR 920 million from ZAR 1.18 billion due to timing changes, and RK3 remains on schedule and within the approved budget.

Matias Cardarelli framed the half-year as confirmation that the turnaround is taking hold, stressing that PPC is now delivering through internal improvements rather than relying on macro conditions. He emphasized a shift toward quality revenue, sustainable margins, stronger cash generation and higher returns on capital, and said employee engagement and leadership alignment are supporting the change. His tone was confident and combative on industry narratives, repeatedly distinguishing between 'announcement and reality' and saying PPC is ahead of plan with 'more to come.'

Brenda Berlin highlighted the clean-up in the financials and the quality of the earnings improvement. She cited revenue of ZAR 5.4 billion, EBITDA of ZAR 983 million, margin of 18.3%, adjusted headline EPS up 32%, CapEx of ZAR 225 million, and operating cash inflows up 32% to ZAR 661 million after adjusting for ZAR 317 million of RK3 advanced payments. She also noted group ROIC of 13.4%, SA & Botswana gearing at just 0.1x net debt to EBITDA, RK3-related unrealized FX losses of ZAR 54 million after tax in the pro forma HEPS adjustment, and a full hedge of the USD exposure for RK3 at an average rate of $18.50.

Analysts focused on Zimbabwe asset quality, the risk of a rumored Dangote entry, and whether cement pricing in South Africa could come under pressure from added capacity and imports. Management said Zimbabwe assets are being upgraded through a 3-year maintenance plan, new solar projects, and a technical agreement with Sinoma Overseas, while downplaying the Dangote news as not yet real. On pricing, PPC said any pressure would likely be concentrated in the low-strength 32.5 inland market, which it described as a small and less relevant part of its mix. On FX, Brenda said the full RK3 USD exposure is hedged at about $18.50 with simple forward contracts, and that hedge losses should be offset by matching gains on the creditor over time.