Redfin Corporation

Q4 2024 revenue was $244 million, up 12% year over year. Gross profit was $82 million, up 12%, and total gross margin was 34%, unchanged from last year. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $3 million versus a $13 million loss in Q4 2023; net loss was $36 million versus $23 million, and diluted loss per share was $0.29 versus $0.20. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA loss was $27 million, improving by $53 million versus 2023 and $165 million versus 2022. Segment results in Q4 included real estate services revenue of $149 million, rentals revenue of $52 million, mortgage revenue of $30 million, title revenue of $9 million, and monetization revenue of $4 million. Real estate services gross margin was 21.9%; rentals gross margin was 76.2%; mortgage gross margin was 10.9%; title gross margin was 26.2%. For Q1 2025, Redfin guided total revenue to $214 million to $225 million, or down 5% to roughly flat year over year. It guided real estate services revenue to $126 million to $131 million, rentals revenue to $49 million to $51 million, mortgage revenue to $27 million to $30 million, title revenue to about $8 million, and monetization revenue to about $4 million. Real estate services gross margin is expected to be 17% to 18%. Total marketing expense is expected to be about $40 million, up $15 million year over year. Restructuring charges are expected to be $21 million to $24 million, with about $14 million to $17 million in cash charges. Q1 net loss is guided to $94 million to $83 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss to $39 million to $32 million.

Glenn Kelman said Redfin is shifting into a more aggressive growth posture in 2025, emphasizing more agents, more traffic, and better monetization across brokerage, mortgage, title, and rentals. He repeatedly framed Next as a net positive even with one-time share and margin disruption, arguing that the company is trading a quarter of market-share gains for a larger, better sales force and better economics over time. His tone was upbeat and forceful, but he also cautioned that the housing recovery is likely to be slow and that the company should not overstate near-term share gains.

Chris Nielsen focused on the mechanics behind the quarter and the guidance. He said Q4 operating expenses were $112 million, down $5 million year over year, helped by $4 million lower rentals amortization and $4 million lower software expense, partly offset by $3 million higher marketing. He highlighted segment profitability improvements, including title EBITDA of $8 million for 2024, up $9 million, and monetization EBITDA of $15 million for 2024, up 46%. On the outlook, he emphasized $40 million of Q1 marketing spend, $21 million to $24 million of restructuring charges, and a significant reduction in rentals revenue once the Zillow partnership is fully implemented, but with expenses falling even more and rentals EBITDA expected to be more than triple 2024 on a run-rate basis.

Analysts focused on three main issues: the planned marketing ramp, the pace and durability of Redfin Next agent hiring, and the economics of the Zillow rentals partnership. Management said marketing is being pulled forward because homebuyers are already in market, the campaign runs through June, and the company expects more leverage in the second half of 2025. On Next, management said current agent count is above 2,200 versus a Q3 average of 1,757, that new hires are still ramping over four to six months, and that attrition has not been significant since the initial market transitions. On rentals, CFO Chris Nielsen said revenue will be down meaningfully but not by 90%, because the core digital services businesses are being shut down and the new model is per-lead rather than legacy revenue.