Sibanye Stillwater Limited

For 2025, headline earnings per share increased 281% to ZAR 244 cents per share. Adjusted EBITDA increased almost threefold from ZAR 13 billion to just under ZAR 38 billion, and revenue increased 16% while costs were down 8%. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 0.59x from 1.77x, gross debt was ZAR 39 billion, cash on hand was ZAR 17 billion, and net debt was ZAR 22 billion. The board declared a dividend of ZAR 131 cents per share, or about a 2% yield. Reported notable items included a ZAR 3.8 billion loss on financial instruments, ZAR 15.8 billion of impairments, and a $215 million settlement of the Appian claim. Guidance for 2026 includes slightly lower South African PGM production, slightly lower South African gold production due mainly to Kloof, a slight increase in U.S. PGM underground output, recycling guidance of 400,000 to 420,000 gold equivalent ounces, Keliber total expenditure of EUR 180 million to EUR 190 million, and Century likely in its last full year of production.

Richard Stewart emphasized that the company’s refreshed strategy is about simplification: simplifying operations, simplifying the portfolio, and concentrating capital on the highest-return, cash-generative assets. He said the second half of 2025 was transformational but also noisy, with major decisions around Kloof, Keliber, labor settlements, and the Appian case, yet the outcome was a more stable base for 2026. His tone was constructive and confident, repeatedly stressing operational resilience, better financial stability, and the potential for stronger cash flow if commodity prices hold.

Charl Keyter highlighted the hard numbers behind the turnaround: HEPS up 281% to ZAR 244 cents, adjusted EBITDA up 189% to just under ZAR 38 billion, revenue up 16%, and costs down 8%. He pointed to nonroutine items that weighed on the year, including a ZAR 3.8 billion financial-instruments loss, ZAR 15.8 billion of impairments, and the ZAR 215 million Appian settlement, while noting taxes and royalties rose to ZAR 4.3 billion in line with profitability. On capital allocation, he said 2026 growth capex excluding DRD is planned at ZAR 3.7 billion versus ZAR 9.4 billion spent in 2025, gross debt was ZAR 39 billion against ZAR 17 billion cash, liquidity headroom was ZAR 40 billion, and the near-term debt focus is the 2026 $675 million bond renewal.

Analysts focused heavily on Keliber and asked about the risk of achieving spec-grade spodumene early in the ramp-up, the lithium price assumptions behind the impairment, the remaining book value, and the next steps in the battery metals strategy. Management said the staged ramp-up was designed to reduce risk and that test work gives confidence they can achieve a concentrate grade above 5%, while the long-term average lithium price used was just under USD 17,500 per tonne, implying a long-term assumption of about USD 20,000 per tonne. They also said Keliber’s remaining book value is ZAR 9 billion, the project needs sustainably higher prices to meet hurdle rates, and the near-term focus is on optimizing the current portfolio rather than chasing broader battery-metal expansion.