Sibanye Stillwater Limited

For 2025, headline earnings per share increased 281% to ZAR 244 cents per share. Adjusted EBITDA increased almost threefold from ZAR 13 billion to just under ZAR 38 billion, or 189%. Revenue increased 16% and costs were down 8%. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 0.59x from 1.77x at end-2024; gross debt was ZAR 39 billion and cash on hand was ZAR 17 billion, for net debt of ZAR 22 billion. The company declared a dividend of ZAR 131 cents per share, or about a 2% yield, equal to ZAR 3.7 billion and described as the top end of the dividend policy. Reported nonroutine items included a ZAR 3.8 billion loss on financial instruments, ZAR 15.8 billion of impairments across U.S. PGM operations, Keliber and Kloof, and a $215 million settlement of the Appian claim (about ZAR 3.6 billion). Operationally, South African PGM production was 1.8 million ounces, U.S. PGM production was 284,000 3E ounces, and gold production including DRDGOLD was 19.7 tonnes. Looking ahead, management guided to slightly lower South African PGM output, slightly lower South African gold output due to Kloof, a slight increase in U.S. PGM underground output as costs trend toward $1,000 per ounce, recycling guidance of 400,000 to 420,000 gold-equivalent ounces, Keliber output of at least 15,000 to 20,000 kilotonnes of spodumene concentrate, and Century zinc likely being the last full year of production.

Richard Stewart framed 2025 as a year of significant leadership change, strategy refresh, and difficult portfolio decisions, but said the result was a more simplified and focused company. He said the immediate priority is maximizing operating margins through operational excellence, a simpler operating model, and a disciplined capital allocation split roughly one-third to shareholder returns, one-third to gross debt reduction, and one-third to growth. His tone was constructive and confident, repeatedly stressing that the company has launched into 2026 from a stronger, more stable base.

Charl Keyter highlighted the financial rebound but stressed that the year was affected by several large nonroutine items. He pointed to 281% growth in headline EPS, adjusted EBITDA of just under ZAR 38 billion, a 16% revenue increase, an 8% cost decline, and leverage falling to 0.59x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. He also noted ZAR 15.8 billion of impairments, ZAR 3.8 billion of financial-instrument losses, and the Appian settlement, while saying liquidity headroom was strong at ZAR 40 billion and that 2026 growth capital excluding DRD is planned at ZAR 3.7 billion versus ZAR 9.4 billion in 2025.

Analysts focused mainly on Keliber execution, the lithium price assumptions behind impairments, and whether current results are repeatable. Management said the staged Keliber ramp-up is intended to reduce risk, that they are confident they can achieve a high spodumene grade above 5% based on test work, and that the first stage can be commercially viable on its own. On valuations, management said the average long-term lithium price used was just under USD 17,500 per tonne, roughly USD 20,000 per tonne, and that they would want sustained prices in the USD 14,000 to USD 15,000 range or better to meet internal hurdle rates; they also disclosed Keliber’s remaining book value at ZAR 9 billion, or just under EUR 460 million. On Kloof, they reiterated that the mine-life reduction was driven first by safety and geotechnical risk, not price, and that any re-extension would depend on safety and fixed-cost economics rather than simply higher gold prices.