K+S AG

K+S said Q2 EBITDA was about EUR 176 million, significantly above last year’s Q2, driven mainly by higher ASPs, higher volumes, and cost discipline, partly offset by price-related cost increases from the geopolitical environment. Free cash flow came in at EUR 40 million and was better than last year, though not by as much as EBITDA because of higher working capital, mainly receivables. For 2026, the company raised EBITDA guidance to EUR 680 million-EUR 760 million from EUR 630 million-EUR 730 million, with a midpoint described as in line with Vara consensus; free cash flow guidance was lifted from at least breakeven to a mid- to higher double-digit million euro amount. Management said the midpoint assumes stable potash prices in H2, current logistical cost levels, and a gas price of USD 45 per megawatt-hour.

Christian Meyer framed the quarter as strong operationally, with EBITDA and free cash flow ahead of last year and the Industry+ segment continuing to outperform expectations. He emphasized that the better Q2 result was helped by timing effects, including Bethune maintenance shifting into Q3 this year rather than Q2, so some of the beat reflects quarter-to-quarter phasing rather than only underlying demand. On the demand side, he was constructive on Brazil, neutral-to-comfortable on Europe despite drought, and broadly confident that global regional differences from El Nino would not materially hurt the business overall.

Jens Keuthen focused on balance-sheet and cost items, noting that 70% of gas exposure is hedged and that only 30% remains open for the year, with management saying a EUR 60 spot assumption for the remainder of the year would be only a middle single-digit million-euro impact. He said 2027 gas is already hedged 50% for Europe at a slightly lower price than this year and 88% for Canada at a very good price level. He also gave a rule of thumb of about EUR 30 million per year for CO2 certificate costs, and said the normal tax rate should be roughly 30%.

Analysts probed Brazil demand, European drought and possible potash buying deferrals, the effect of low river levels on Werra production, deicing inventory levels, SOP pricing momentum, gas hedging, 2027 supply additions such as Acron and BHP, and CO2 costs. Management said Brazil had record imports in H1 and should see at least normal H2 demand, that European drought should not lead to a potash holiday in 2027, and that low water levels are being monitored closely but saline water is not expected to be an issue. On supply, management said Acron was already embedded in its planning and that BHP’s later start helps the market balance; on pricing, they said sulfur-backed SOP and kieserite netbacks remain attractive and deicing prices are at historic highs.