TAV Havalimanlari Holding A.S.

For 2025, management said revenue grew above traffic growth, with duty-free revenue up 17%, like-for-like duty-free spend per pax up 9% excluding Antalya and Almaty, and free cash flow at EUR 223 million, up 44% versus 2024. They said net income, after adjusting for noncash items, would be EUR 170 million, only 7% below last year, and total noncash effects were EUR 119 million. Net debt-to-EBITDA finished at 2.89x. On segment detail, Antalya One paid a dividend of EUR 72 million versus EUR 68 million last year, combined EBITDA for Antalya One and new Antalya was EUR 135 million versus EUR 127 million last year, and Ankara EBITDA reached EUR 45 million, up 67%. Looking ahead to 2026, guidance is for 116 million to 123 million passengers, 78 million to 83 million international passengers, EUR 1.888 billion to EUR 1.988 billion revenue, EUR 590 million to EUR 650 million EBITDA, and CapEx of EUR 330 million or less.

Serkan Kaptan framed 2025 as a year shaped by geopolitical disruption, especially in Middle Eastern traffic, and by a strong lira that hurt Antalya and Bodrum but helped Izmir and Ankara. He highlighted structural growth drivers such as AJet’s Ankara expansion, low-cost carrier growth, and strong momentum in markets like Georgia and Almaty. His tone on 2026 was constructive but cautious: management expects growth to continue, yet explicitly said the guidance reflects exogenous risks and does not assume any lifting of Russia-related sanctions.

Karim Salem emphasized that revenue continued to grow faster than traffic, driven by catering from new Antalya operations, higher ground handling pricing, the new Ankara concession, and stronger duty-free spend. He said operating expenses remained below revenue, supporting EBITDA margin expansion, while free cash flow rose to EUR 223 million and consolidated net debt declined, bringing leverage to 2.89x EBITDA. He also noted the company is restarting dividends with TRY 1.3 billion planned for distribution, and explained 2026 CapEx will be weighted toward Almaty’s second phase, Georgia expansion, Ankara solar panels, and growth projects at BTA and other service companies.

Analysts pressed management on 2026 CapEx, net income visibility, Almaty’s Q4 EBITDA decline, the width of the 2026 guidance range, Turkish airport traffic assumptions, and personnel cost inflation. Management said it cannot give net income guidance because of volatility below EBITDA, especially from inflation accounting and FX, and attributed Almaty’s weaker Q4 to euro-USD movements and fuel market volatility, while saying the airport is shifting from fuel toward aviation revenue as planned. On guidance, they pointed to geopolitics and grounded A321neo aircraft as the main reasons for the wide range, said Turkish domestic traffic should normalize versus a strong 2025 base, and explained that higher minimum wages and staffing levels will affect personnel costs in 2026.