Thai Beverage Public Company Limited

For FY2025, ThaiBev reported total sales revenue of THB 333,286 million, down 2.1% year on year, and net profit including associated companies of THB 31,153 million, down 11.7%. Spirits revenue declined 1.8% to THB 118,604 million and net profit fell 7% to THB 19,880 million; beer revenue declined 2.5% to THB 123,222 million but net profit rose 24.6% to THB 6,503 million; nonalcoholic beverage revenue fell 1.6% to THB 64,774 million with net profit down 13.4% to THB 5,141 million; food revenue fell 1.7% to THB 21,899 million and the segment posted a THB 128 million loss. The board proposed a total dividend of THB 15,581 million, or THB 0.62 per share, representing a 61.4% payout ratio. Management did not give formal forward guidance, but said FY2026 input costs should be favorable: molasses is 30% to 35% lower than last year, resin for packaging is about 60% of last year’s price, malt is expected to decline another double digits, and broken rice is more than 20% lower with another 20% further down from last year; CapEx is expected to normalize by mid-next year and the dividend policy remains at least half of profit.

Management’s tone was cautious but constructive. The CEO-level commentary emphasized that there is no clear structural change in spirits demand yet; instead, Thai consumer weakness, household debt, and post-COVID economic softness are still pressuring alcohol consumption. At the same time, the team pointed to Thailand’s government stimulus, possible election-related demand support, and ongoing product launches as reasons to remain optimistic about next year.

The CFO commentary focused on capital, payouts, and margin support. Net gearing rose because EBITDA was weaker, even though absolute interest-bearing debt was lower; management said CapEx tied to Malaysia and Cambodia is mostly already spent and should not repeat at the same level in 2026. On returns, the board proposed THB 0.62 per share and management said the dividend should remain at least 50% of profit, subject to cash flow, with the payout ratio slightly higher despite softer earnings. They also highlighted a favorable cost backdrop for 2026 across molasses, malt, resin, broken rice, aluminum, carton, corrugated paper, and labels.

Analysts focused on the Q4 spirits slowdown, elevated marketing spend, beer competition, IPO timing, NAB market share, and 2026 margins. Management said the Q4 spirits drop was driven by border conflict disruptions, floods, a pause ahead of new government policy, and a tough comparison versus last year’s stronger sell-in; they do not see a structural demand break and said marketing will stay cautious and use existing trade networks. For beer, management said Thailand momentum remains strong and Vietnam remains fiercely competitive but Bia Saigon is still #1; on an IPO, they repeated that market conditions are not conducive yet. They also said Cambodia facilities should be completed by year-end with commercial production around December to January, and clarified that dairy volume was reclassified for comparability rather than reflecting a simple loss of volume to another segment.