T&D Holdings, Inc.

For the 9 months ended December 31, 2025, group adjusted profit was JPY 122.5 billion versus the full-year forecast of JPY 146 billion, a progress rate of 83.9%. Combined value of new business was JPY 144.3 billion, up JPY 5.3 billion year-on-year, and the new business margin was 9.3%. Group MCEV was JPY 4.3974 trillion, up JPY 451.7 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year, and ESR was 225%. Management said there was no change to the full-year earnings forecast or dividends for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. For the remaining three months, it said group adjusted profit is expected to decrease by approximately JPY 0.2 billion for every JPY 1 of appreciation.

Satoshi Ito’s message was that operating progress is strong, but management wants to validate Q4 before changing any outlook. He said the company is confident it can achieve the JPY 146 billion full-year group adjusted profit target, but noted uncertainty around Fortitude/Viridium Q4 results and the final gains/losses from equity sales and bond replacement. His tone was constructive but cautious, emphasizing that the company wants a “highly probable” forecast and would disclose any revision as early as possible.

Ito highlighted that the three life insurers increased core profits, helped by capital gains on equity sales, lower hedge costs, higher interest/dividend income, and improved insurance margins at T&D Financial Life. He also noted average assumed investment yields of 1.35% at Taiyo Life and 1.21% at Daido Life, and said Taiyo and Daido’s combined domestic and foreign equity sales were about JPY 209 billion, above the full-year plan of JPY 180 billion. On capital, he pointed to ESR at 225%, said unrealized foreign and domestic bond gains rose with higher domestic rates, and explained that Viridium triggered JPY 75 billion of goodwill under financial accounting but no impact on group adjusted profit because amortization is excluded.

Analysts focused on whether the company could beat the full-year JPY 146 billion adjusted profit target, how much upside came from investment gains, and how higher rates and surrender behavior could affect EV and ESR. Management said upside from alternatives was roughly JPY 20 billion pretax year to date, but it would not quantify next-year impact and said the JPY 146 billion target should be achievable with no clear sign of a large upside. On surrender risk, Ito said Taiyo’s surrender rate has risen more than initially expected, especially in bancassurance, but the financial risk is limited and the company is shortening duration by selling 10-year-or-longer bonds and moving into shorter assets or cash. He also said a January rate spike would not require asset impairment and that with every 50 basis point increase in domestic rates, ESR falls by 7 points.