T&D Holdings, Inc.

For the nine months ended December 31, 2025, group adjusted profit was JPY 122.5 billion versus the full-year forecast of JPY 146 billion, implying an 83.9% progress rate. Combined value of new business for the three life insurers was JPY 144.3 billion versus a full-year forecast of JPY 168 billion, and the new business margin was 9.3%. Group MCEV was JPY 4.3974 trillion, up JPY 451.7 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year, and ESR was 225%. T&D United Capital’s adjusted profit fell by JPY 5 billion year over year to JPY 5.4 billion. Management left the full-year earnings forecast and dividends unchanged, and said group adjusted profit is expected to decrease by about JPY 0.2 billion for every JPY 1 of yen appreciation over the remaining three months. On the call, management also said the JGB portfolio reshuffling should add JPY 3.1 billion of positive spread next fiscal year, and alternative investments created about JPY 20 billion of pretax upside versus plan this fiscal year.

No CEO spoke on the call; the lead executive tone from IR was cautious but confident. Management repeatedly emphasized that performance was brisk versus plan and that the company is confident it can hit the JPY 146 billion full-year adjusted profit target. At the same time, they stressed that they still want to confirm Q4 results at Fortitude and Viridium and monitor the timing of equity sales and bond replacement before discussing any forecast revision.

The financial commentary focused on mix, portfolio actions, and risk metrics rather than a single consolidated earnings bridge. Management said Taiyo and Daido benefited from capital gains on equity sales, lower currency hedge costs, and higher interest dividend income, partly offset by expenses and bond-sale losses tied to ALM and cash-flow matching. They also said Group MCEV increased on new business accumulation, rising stock prices, and LDTI at Fortitude Re; strategic equity holdings were 19% of net assets, or around 13% after roughly JPY 100 billion already agreed for sale, and ESR declined to 225% because of the Viridium investment and higher mass surrender risk from rising domestic rates.

Analysts focused on whether the company had upside to the JPY 146 billion profit target, how much of current gains came from equity sales and alternative investments, and whether Taiyo’s higher surrender rate could hurt EV. Management said there is not likely to be significant upside at the current point because results depend on Q4 Fortitude/Viridium and market-sensitive gains/losses from equity and bond sales. On surrender risk, they said Taiyo’s surrender increase is being driven by rate hikes and bancassurance OTC behavior, that risk is limited on a financial basis due to reinsurance/transfer actions, and that asset duration is being shortened with more short bonds or cash. Later questions covered the impact of a January rate spike on ESR, the prudence of Luxembourg GAAP for Viridium, and PE/SaaS exposure; management said every 50 bp rise in domestic rates lowers ESR by 7 points, no asset impairment is needed if bonds are held to match reserves, Luxembourg GAAP is similar to but somewhat more prudent than J-GAAP, and private equity exposure is diversified with no known sector concentration.