Tryg A/S

Tryg said Q2 revenue grew 3.3%, with Private up 5% and Commercial down slightly. The adjusted insurance service result was DKK 2.39 billion, while the reported insurance service result was DKK 1.19 billion after a DKK 1.2 billion workers’ compensation charge. The adjusted combined ratio was 77.4%, operating EPS was DKK 3.2, and the solvency ratio was 196%. Management also said the investment result was DKK 262 million, property exposure was reduced by DKK 200 million in the quarter plus another DKK 250 million in early Q3, and the expense ratio was 13.3%. For guidance, management now expects full-year 2026 revenue growth of around 3%, sees lower growth in the second half of 2026, and still expects a pickup in 2027 that should exceed current market expectations. 2027 targets were left unchanged: ISR between 8% and 8.4%, combined ratio around 81%, and ROOF between 35% and 40%.

Johan Brammer framed the quarter as strong despite the workers’ compensation charge and unusually high large claims, emphasizing that underlying claims improved 50 basis points and that profitability actions are still working. He sounded confident on the strategic path, pointing to improved retention, new partnerships, more than 20 commercial initiatives, and signs that revenue momentum should reaccelerate in 2027. At the same time, he acknowledged that price-driven growth is tapering and that 2026 commercial revenue will still reflect the weak January renewal.

Allan Thaysen highlighted a solvency ratio of 196, up versus Q1, and said Q2 operating earnings included a net negative impact of DKK 202 million from the Danish workers’ compensation case, offset by increased future profit margin. He noted that the sale of around DKK 200 million of properties reduced SCR by about DKK 20 million in the quarter, and that another DKK 250 million property sale in early July will benefit Q3 capital. He also said the expense ratio was 13.3%, in line with Q1 and consistent with the 2027 goal of being stable to slightly improving, while future capital repatriation expectations were largely unchanged.

Analysts focused on the tension between improving underlying profitability and management’s expectation for faster growth in 2027. Management said the underlying claims ratio should remain stable to slightly improving, but that faster growth will likely slightly dampen that improvement; they also stressed that 2027 growth should benefit from the washout of this year’s weak January renewal. On commercial revenue, management said the market is not materially more competitive, but that the business is still working through the “fumes” of prior inflation-driven repricing and retention is now stabilizing.