T-Mobile US, Inc.

T-Mobile said Q2 postpaid net account additions were 277,000, postpaid service revenue increased 13% year over year, total service revenue increased 9% year over year, core adjusted EBITDA increased 12% year over year, and free cash flow margin was 25%. Management also said Q2 ARPA grew 2% year over year, while postpaid ARPA excluding M&A grew 3.7% year over year. For the full year, the company reiterated service revenue of approximately $77 billion (8% growth), core adjusted EBITDA of $37.1 billion to $37.5 billion (10% growth at the midpoint), cash CapEx of approximately $10 billion, and raised adjusted free cash flow guidance to $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion, up $200 million at the midpoint. For Q3, it expects roughly 250,000 postpaid net account additions, service revenue of approximately $19.3 billion, and core adjusted EBITDA of approximately $9.4 billion.

Srini Gopalan framed the quarter as validation of T-Mobile’s strategy of combining the best network, value and experience. He emphasized record-high customer satisfaction, network leadership awards, and strong traction with "network seekers," along with continued momentum in broadband, business, and new adjacencies like financial services. His tone was very confident and expansive, especially on future opportunities from AI, 6G, and additional spectrum.

Peter Osvaldik said the quarter reinforced the company’s full-year outlook and walked through the guidance updates in detail. He reiterated full-year postpaid net account additions of 950,000 to 1,050,000, explained that Q3 net additions should be around 250,000 because of temporary churn from rate plan modernization, and kept service revenue, EBITDA, and CapEx guidance intact. He raised adjusted free cash flow guidance by $200 million at the midpoint, primarily due to lower cash income taxes, and said the company repurchased an incremental $2.5 billion of stock in Q2 and through July 17; since late 2022 it has repurchased 253 million shares and reduced shares outstanding to $1.07 billion. He also said buybacks will remain tied to the capital allocation framework and upcoming spectrum opportunities.

Analysts focused on the balance between volume and price, device subsidies, spectrum needs, fixed wireless competition from LEO satellite, fiber expansion, prepaid softness, and the timing of the Starlink/JV arrangements. Management said it is balancing volume and value through CLV, and noted double-digit CLV growth and port-in ARPAs roughly 20% above port-out ARPAs. On device subsidies, it said it does not intend to raise subsidy levels even as handset prices rise. On spectrum and capacity, it said the fallow capacity model still leaves ample room for FWA, AI traffic is not yet materially straining mobile networks, and the company is not buying spectrum strictly for fixed wireless. Management also confirmed the Starlink exclusivity does not end this year and said the JV talks are progressing rapidly toward a long-form agreement.