UniCredit S.p.A.

UniCredit said Q2 revenue was up 7% and adjusted revenues were up 13%; H1 revenue was up 5% and adjusted revenues were up 10%. Adjusted net profit increased more than 20% to EUR 3.1 billion in Q2 and EUR 6.3 billion in H1, while adjusted EPS, DPS and tangible book value per share were up 28%, 16% and 16%, respectively. Cost of risk was 17 basis points, net NPE ratio fell to 1.4%, coverage improved to 45.9%, and quarterly organic capital generation was 85 basis points. Guidance was raised for 2026 net profit to circa EUR 11.5 billion excluding integration costs and to well above EUR 11 billion including them; year-end CET1 is expected to be circa 15%. Management also said NII should accelerate in the second half, with the structural hedge expected to contribute around EUR 400 million in 2026 and EUR 1.3 billion cumulatively by 2028.

Andrea Orcel framed the quarter as proof that UniCredit’s ‘Unlimited’ model is working, combining profitable market-share gains with ongoing cost and process transformation. He repeatedly emphasized that the bank is growing without sacrificing margin or asset quality, and said the company is improving operating leverage unlike peers. His tone was confident and expansive, especially on the bank’s ability to raise ambitions again despite Commerzbank-related negative one-offs and Russia compression.

Stefano Porro emphasized that organic capital generation is expected to stay above distributions and that the group can keep building capital even with business growth and regulatory items. He said a Danish Compromise would add a capital benefit of more than 50 basis points but also about EUR 6 billion of RWA, and that operational risk will add a couple of billion of RWA at year-end. On NII, he pointed to flat client spread at around 138 basis points, deposit pass-through at 30%, and a flattish trend in both for 2026, with a sequential pickup expected as the structural hedge and rate assumptions support earnings.

Analysts pressed on NII trends, the suspended 2025 buyback, the Danish Compromise, and the Commerzbank timeline. Management said NII weakness was mainly a mix issue and Russia compression, but expects a second-half pickup as rates and margin dynamics stabilize; the 2025 buyback stays suspended and would be canceled if Commerzbank is consolidated, otherwise reinstated. On Commerzbank, Orcel said the TRS question is only about the physically settled 3.2% stake, that talks with the German government are premature but welcome, and that integration would likely be kept separate for 2 to 3 years, though faster execution is not ruled out if conditions change.