UniCredit S.p.A.

UniCredit reported another record quarter and first half. Adjusted net profit was EUR 3.1 billion in Q2 and EUR 6.3 billion in H1, with adjusted revenues up 13% in the quarter and 10% in the half; adjusted GOP and NOP were up more than 20% in the quarter and more than 15% in the half. Adjusted EPS rose 28%, DPS 16%, and tangible book value per share 16%. On the underlying business, revenues were up 7% in Q2 and 5% in H1; fees and net insurance grew 14% in Q2 and 11% in H1; cost of risk was 17 bps; net NPE ratio fell to 1.4%; coverage improved to 45.9%; and CET1 was 14.3% (14.5% excluding the 19 bps Commerzbank position impact), or 15% pro forma for the Danish compromise. Management lifted 2026 net profit guidance to circa EUR 11.5 billion excluding integration costs and well above EUR 11 billion including them, and said year-end CET1 should improve to circa 15%.

Andrea Orcel framed the quarter as proof that UniCredit’s model is “winning,” emphasizing profitable market-share gains, strong operating leverage, and continued transformation. He repeatedly described the company as delivering “record” results while investing in people, technology, and AI to support future growth. His tone was confident and more ambitious than before, especially as he tied the upgraded profit and capital outlook to the bank’s stand-alone momentum and the Commerzbank optionality.

Stefano Porro focused on the mechanics behind the numbers and capital trajectory. He said the group generated 85 bps of organic capital in the quarter, cost of risk stayed structurally low at 17 bps, and the overlay stock stood at EUR 1.6 billion after using about EUR 70 million mainly for the IFRS 9 macro update. On NII, he said client spreads were flat at about 138 bps in H1, deposit pass-through was flat at 30%, the structural hedge should contribute about EUR 400 million this year, and the cumulative contribution through 2028 and 2030 should be EUR 1.3 billion and EUR 2.4 billion, respectively. He also said a Danish compromise would provide a capital benefit of something more than 50 bps but add around EUR 6 billion of RWAs, and that management expects organic capital generation to remain higher than distributions.

Analysts focused heavily on the Danish compromise, NII, the canceled 2025 buyback, and Commerzbank timing and capital impact. Orcel said the Danish compromise was still expected in Q3, probably September, and did not constrain strategic options; on NII, Porro said margins were flat at the group level in H1 but expected a sequential pickup, helped by higher rates and a structural hedge contribution. On the 2025 buyback, Orcel said it remains suspended until Commerzbank closes or fails, and would be canceled only if control is obtained. On Commerzbank, management said it now holds 47.6% of shares and sees 2 to 3 years as the right timeframe to align the banks before any merger, while also saying some value creation could be pulled forward through procurement, product-factory links, and shared platforms.