Vonovia SE

H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA total was around EUR 1.46 billion, up 2.4% reported and 6.4% excluding last year’s land-sale comparison. Adjusted EBT per share was EUR 1.13, down 5.4% reported and roughly flat excluding the Q1 2025 land sale; adjusted shareholder earnings were EUR 0.91 per share. EPRA NTA per share was unchanged at EUR 46.22, fair value was EUR 81.8 billion at end-June, and operating free cash flow was EUR 607.5 million. Rental adjusted EBITDA increased 3.5% to around EUR 1.27 billion; Value-add adjusted EBITDA rose 28% to more than EUR 128 million; Recurring Sales adjusted EBITDA was EUR 39 million; Development adjusted EBITDA was EUR 20 million. For 2026, Vonovia guided to rental revenue of EUR 3.45 billion to EUR 3.55 billion, organic rent growth of around 4%, investments of around EUR 1.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA total of EUR 2.95 billion to EUR 3.05 billion, adjusted EBT of EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 2 billion, and adjusted shareholder earnings of EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 1.5 billion. Management said if market weakness in sales-related segments persists, EBITDA and adjusted EBT may land below the upper half of guidance, though ASE could still reach the upper half because of lower taxes. 2028 objectives were also reaffirmed, including rental revenue of EUR 3.7 billion to EUR 3.8 billion, organic rent growth of around 5%, investments of around EUR 2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA total of EUR 3.2 billion to EUR 3.5 billion.

Luka Mucic framed H1 as a quarter of strong core operating performance, disposals progress and proactive financial management. He emphasized that Rental remains the “rock-solid foundation,” Value-add continues to scale, and the company is still on track for its 2028 objectives while managing leverage more aggressively. He also stressed that the current softness in sales-related segments is mainly a market-timing issue rather than a change in strategy.

Philip Grosse highlighted that Rental remained predictable and cash-generative, with 2.3% vacancy, a near-100% collection rate, and 3.6% organic rent growth distorted by the timing of Mietspiegel implementation. He pointed to Value-add operating leverage, with revenue up 9.4% and EBITDA up 28%, and said the segment is already around the 9% contribution level targeted for 2028. On the balance sheet, he cited EUR 4.4 billion refinanced at an average duration of around 8 years and an average euro coupon of around 3.2%, plus EUR 1.5 billion spent on note buybacks and redemptions; leverage ratios were 14x net debt/EBITDA, 46% LTV and 3.6x ICR, all improved year over year.

Analysts focused on three themes: whether slower nonrental EBITDA initiatives could threaten the 2028 plan, how much of the Berlin Mietspiegel rent increase Vonovia plans to pass through, and whether disposals at higher yields could hurt 2028 targets. Management said Berlin’s 6.9% Mietspiegel increase is being implemented at 4.8% for now for affordability/political reasons, with the remaining increase delayed rather than written off. On disposals, management said the extra EUR 800 million of noncore Swedish assets should not materially change the 2028 outlook, and on sales/development they acknowledged H1 softness but said H2 should be stronger due to seasonality, reservations, land sales and a planned global exit transaction.