Vonovia SE

H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA total was around EUR 1.46 billion, up 2.4% reported and 6.4% adjusted for last year’s land sale. Rental adjusted EBITDA increased 3.5% to around EUR 1.27 billion; Value-add adjusted EBITDA rose 28% to more than EUR 128 million; Recurring Sales adjusted EBITDA was EUR 39 million; Development adjusted EBITDA was EUR 20 million. Adjusted EBT per share was EUR 1.13, down 5.4% reported but basically flat excluding the Q1 2025 land sale; adjusted shareholder earnings were EUR 0.91 per share; EPRA NTA per share was EUR 46.22; operating free cash flow was EUR 607.5 million. Management confirmed 2026 guidance: Rental revenue EUR 3.45 billion to EUR 3.55 billion, organic rent growth around 4%, investments around EUR 1.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA total EUR 2.95 billion to EUR 3.05 billion, adjusted EBT EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 2.0 billion, and adjusted shareholder earnings EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 1.5 billion. For 2028, targets remain Rental revenue EUR 3.7 billion to EUR 3.8 billion, organic rent growth around 5%, investments around EUR 2 billion, adjusted EBITDA total EUR 3.2 billion to EUR 3.5 billion, and a mid-single-digit CAGR in adjusted EBT and adjusted shareholder earnings.

Luka Mucic emphasized that H1 showed strong core operating performance, progress on disposals, and proactive balance-sheet management. He said the Rental business remains the “rock-solid foundation,” Value-add continues to scale, and the company is staying disciplined on capital allocation while pushing toward its 2028 deleveraging and earnings goals. His tone was constructive but cautious on sales-related segments, noting that if the market stays weak those businesses could come in a bit below plan, though he said tax effects could offset part of that in adjusted shareholder earnings.

Philip Grosse focused on the mechanics behind the quarter: Rental revenue grew 3.4%, EBITDA 3.5%, vacancy was 2.3%, and collections were almost 100%. He said operating expenses in Rental were distorted by a EUR 7.5 million tax refund in Q2 2025; excluding that, expense growth would have been slightly below 3%. He also highlighted Value-add margin leverage, with revenue up 9.4% to EUR 800 million and EBITDA up 28% to more than EUR 128 million, while disposals, refinancing, and leverage management remain central to the capital-allocation plan.

Analysts pressed on whether slower Recurring Sales and Development could threaten 2028 objectives and leverage targets, and management said the businesses are seasonal and more back-end loaded, with July reservations in Recurring Sales encouraging and H2 supported by land sales and a global exit transaction. On Berlin Mietspiegel, management said it implemented a 4.8% increase versus the 6.9% headline potential to balance affordability and politics, and called the remainder delayed rather than lost. Questions on valuation and yields were answered by saying Vonovia relies on transaction evidence, not model assumptions, and that current market pricing still supports value growth despite higher rates.