The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
U.S. mortgage rates eased for a second straight week, with the 30-year fixed rate slipping to 6.65% and the 15-year rate falling to 5.95%. Even so, borrowing costs remain elevated, keeping affordability strained, limiting refinancing, and pointing to subdued housing activity.
Weekly jobless claims sent a mixed signal as initial filings dropped to 206,000, while continuing claims climbed to 1.799 million. The report points to a resilient but cooling labor market, easing recession fears and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s case for patience on rate cuts.
The MBA’s 30-year mortgage rate stayed at 6.77%, near a one-year high, even as applications ticked higher. The reading underscores a high-cost housing market, fading refinance incentives, and a restrictive backdrop that keeps pressure on homebuyers, builders, and Fed policy expectations.
The latest FOMC minutes struck a hawkish tone, showing officials still see inflation as too hot for a cut and leaving another hike on the table. With growth holding up and labor markets stable, the Fed appears set to keep policy restrictive while bond yields stay elevated.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in July, below expectations, as manufacturing momentum cooled and auto output fell. Durable goods and business equipment still posted gains, while capacity utilization stayed subdued, reinforcing a steady-but-not-overheating backdrop for the Federal Reserve.
U.S. housing data sent mixed signals in July: starts fell sharply, pending home sales weakened, and mortgage rates stayed elevated, but building permits climbed. The split suggests builders still have future projects in the pipeline even as affordability and financing costs continue to cool demand.
New York manufacturing accelerated sharply in August, with the Empire State index jumping to 20.6 and topping expectations by a wide margin. Stronger orders, shipments, and hiring point to resilient factory momentum, while elevated price readings keep inflation concerns in focus for the Federal Reserve.
The NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 35, topping forecasts by 2 points, but builder confidence remains stuck below 40 for a 15th straight month. High mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic and rising price cuts show the housing market is still under pressure.
A packed US economic calendar will test whether growth is holding up, housing can withstand high borrowing costs, and the Fed remains hawkish. Key releases include manufacturing surveys, jobless claims, mortgage rates, housing data, and FOMC minutes after a divided July policy meeting.
A softer CPI and flat PPI gave markets relief, but July retail sales fell sharply and consumer sentiment weakened. Treasury yields eased and stocks briefly rallied, yet firmer inflation expectations and cooling spending left the Federal Reserve with room to wait, not enough to declare victory.
U.S. consumer spending lost momentum in July, with retail sales falling 0.6% and sentiment dropping in August. Inflation is easing only gradually, leaving households squeezed by still-elevated prices, higher borrowing costs and a softer labor backdrop.
The University of Michigan’s August survey showed consumer sentiment sliding to 51.0, well below forecasts, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.3%. The mixed readout points to softer household demand, sticky price worries and a cautious Federal Reserve backdrop.
Generate AI research on any ticker — grades, price targets, and full analysis in minutes.
Open the GeneratorCancel anytime