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▌Research Report·October 6, 2026

Nu Holdings (NU): Scale, Profitability, and Mexico Upside

Nu Holdings posted 52.1% revenue growth, 66.3% earnings growth, and a 139 million-customer base, with Mexico and operating leverage driving the case.

Research ReportNUFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalGrowth
By TickerSpark·October 6, 2026·18 min read
Nu Holdings (NU): Scale, Profitability, and Mexico Upside

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Notice: All content and data on TickerSpark is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All investments involve risk. Please see our Full Disclaimer for more details.

© 2026 Maxwell Cyberlogic LLC

Not Investment Advice

Made in Delaware, USA

B+
Overall
B
Balance Sheet
B+
Income
B+
Estimates
B+
Valuation
TickerSpark AI RatingBuy
▌Investment Summary
Nu Holdings (NU) looks attractive right now, earning an overall grade of B+ and a Buy. Our fair value is $18, which sits above the current price and reflects strong revenue growth, expanding profitability, and a still-early Mexico opportunity.

Thesis

Nu Holdings (NU) combines 52.1% year-over-year revenue growth, 66.3% earnings growth, a 14.8x forward P/E, and a 5.4% free-cash-flow yield. The Q2 2026 report added a major proof point: net income reached $1.1B, gross revenue reached nearly $5.9B, and the customer base reached 139 million. The investment case rests on Nu converting that scale into deeper primary-account relationships, higher revenue per customer, and durable credit economics.

The strongest part of the thesis is operating leverage. Nu reported a 19.5% efficiency ratio in Q2 2026, risk-adjusted net interest margin of 12.4%, and return on equity of 33% under its managerial framework. Its annual financial statements show revenue rising from $7.7B in 2023 to $15.9B in 2025, while net income increased from $1.0B to $2.9B over the same period.

The principal risks are credit-cycle pressure, emerging-market regulation, a current ratio of 0.59, and inconsistent earnings surprises. Nu beat the listed EPS estimate in only 1 of the last 7 completed quarters. At a current share price of $14.62, the stock offers an attractive growth profile, but the balance sheet and forecast record justify discipline rather than enthusiasm at any price. The recommendation is Buy, with an $18.00 valuation anchor.

Company Overview

Nu Holdings is a digital-first financial services platform founded in 2013 and headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil. It operates across Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, the Cayman Islands, and the United States. Its core model uses a mobile platform to distribute accounts, cards, payments, deposits, lending, insurance, investing, cryptocurrency services, and small-business products.

Nu's scale is now substantial. Management reported 139 million customers in Q2 2026, including almost 118 million in Brazil, more than 5 million in Colombia, and 16 million in Mexico by the end of July. Activity reached 83.5% globally, while Brazil exceeded 86%. That combination gives Nu a large base from which to cross-sell products without relying exclusively on new-account acquisition.

▌Common Questions

Frequently asked questions

+Is NU stock a buy right now?
Yes, NU is a Buy right now. The report gives it an overall grade of B+ because revenue is growing 52.1% year over year, earnings are up 66.3%, and the business is still gaining scale in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.
+What is NU's fair value?
Nu Holdings' fair value is $18. We arrive at that view by weighing 14.8x forward earnings, a 5.4% free-cash-flow yield, strong operating leverage, and the company’s expanding primary-account relationships against credit-cycle and execution risk.
+What are the biggest risks for NU stock?
The biggest risks are credit-cycle pressure, emerging-market regulation, and a weak liquidity profile, including a current ratio of 0.59. The report also notes inconsistent earnings surprises, with NU beating the listed EPS estimate in only 1 of the last 7 completed quarters.
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The company has moved from a credit-card challenger toward a broader bank. Q2 2026 deposits reached $45.3B, while the consolidated credit portfolio reached $39.4B. Nu also serves 6.8 million small businesses in Brazil. This widening product base matters because a digital bank becomes more valuable when customers use it for deposits, payments, credit, and savings rather than for one isolated product.

Business Segment Deep Dive

Brazil remains Nu's largest and most mature market. Management estimates that Brazil's mass-market segment represents roughly $30B of industry gross profit, while Nu holds about 7% of that profit pool. More than 60% of Nu's mass-market customers use the company as their primary account, giving Nu a strong base for deposits, payments, credit, and additional financial products.

Mexico is the clearest geographic growth engine. Mexican regulators approved Nu's banking license in 2026, and the company reached 16 million customers by the end of July. Management reported that Nu already served 16.5% of Mexico's adult population, with an average revenue per active customer of $12.30 versus $5.60 for Brazil at a comparable stage. The license expands Nu's ability to gather deposits, offer payroll services, and develop a broader lending franchise.

Colombia is smaller but adds another market for the same technology and underwriting infrastructure. Nu had more than 5 million Colombian customers in Q2 2026. Within Brazil, the business is also moving up-market through Ultravioleta and Croma. Nearly 1 million Ultravioleta customers recorded purchase volume growth of 41% and assets-under-custody growth of 37% year over year in Q2.

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Flagship Product Analysis

Nu's flagship product is its integrated mobile banking experience, anchored by the Nu credit and prepaid card, NuAccount, payments, and lending. The platform gives customers a single interface for transfers, bill payments, everyday purchases, savings, investments, and credit. The Q2 2026 credit portfolio illustrates the current economic engine: cards reached $26.0B, unsecured lending reached $10.3B, and secured lending reached $3.1B.

The product strategy is shifting from basic access toward account primacy. Croma, launched in July for the Super Core segment, adds a subscription tier with enhanced credit offerings, savings benefits, NuCel mobile service, and a free ChatGPT Go subscription. Ultravioleta serves higher-income customers with a premium experience. These products give Nu additional ways to monetize customers who already use the core app.

The platform's financial performance shows the benefit of product breadth. In Q2, credit contributed 41% of gross profit, fees contributed 25%, and float contributed 34%. Net interest income reached $3.7B, up 9%, while net interest margin expanded 180 basis points to 22.9%. The mix is still lending-heavy, but the three gross-profit sources are growing in absolute terms.

Innovation & Competitive Advantage

NuFormer's strategic value is its connection to the company's transaction data. Nu said the platform uses more than a decade of transaction history across more than 100 million customers in three countries. The model now supports underwriting, deposits, customer support, growth campaigns, and product recommendations. More than 100 campaigns have already used the system to target customers most likely to find an offer useful.

The reported efficiency gains are notable. Nu said the latest NuFormer generation quadrupled context length training speed and inference speed while reducing production model costs. It also said the same predictive performance now requires 20 million fine-tuning data rows compared with more than $400M previously, reducing development cycles from weeks to days.

The moat is therefore more than a low-cost app. It combines customer scale, behavioral data, primary-account relationships, a low-cost operating model, and an AI layer that can improve several products at once. The test for investors is whether these advantages continue to improve credit selection and customer monetization as Nu expands into less mature markets.

Operations & Supply Chain

Nu operates a software-led financial model rather than a physical goods supply chain. Its operating inputs are customer deposits, credit underwriting, payment infrastructure, data systems, cloud and computing capacity, and regulatory licenses. The model scales through the mobile app, which helps explain the 19.5% Q2 efficiency ratio and management's full-year expectation of approximately 20%.

Funding operations remain a central strength. Deposits increased 18% year over year to $45.3B, the cost of deposits was 88% of the interbank rate, and the loan-to-deposit ratio was 35%. That funding base supports credit growth without requiring the same reliance on wholesale markets as a smaller lender.

Credit operations also show deliberate risk selection. Q2 15-to-90-day delinquency improved 16 basis points to 4.8%, while 90-plus-day delinquency rose 35 basis points to 6.9% as earlier delinquencies moved through the cycle. Allowances reached $6.6B, coverage over 90-plus-day nonperforming loans stood at 244%, and allowances equaled 113% of new 15-plus-day delinquency formation.

Market Analysis

Nu operates in a large Latin American retail banking market. Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia together represented 61.2% of Latin America's population and 65.1% of its regional GDP in 2025, according to the company's 20-F. Nu reported approximately 5% share of its serviceable addressable market at year-end 2025, leaving meaningful room for deeper product penetration.

The market is moving toward digital payments and primary-account ownership. In Mexico, 85% of consumers still preferred cash according to management, while transfers below $5 grew more than 60% in the first half of 2026. Nearly half of Mexican transfers were below $25. Those figures show a large base of frequent, low-value transactions that a low-cost mobile platform can gradually capture.

The long-term market opportunity extends beyond cards. Deposits, unsecured lending, secured lending, insurance, investing, small-business banking, payments, and subscription services all increase the addressable customer wallet. Nu's 139 million customers and 83.5% activity rate give it distribution; the next phase depends on converting activity into higher revenue per customer without weakening credit quality.

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Customer Profile

Nu's customer base is broad, digitally engaged, and concentrated in Latin America's mass market. Brazil accounted for almost 118 million customers in Q2 2026, Mexico had 16 million by late July, and Colombia had more than 5 million. Brazil's activity rate exceeded 86%, demonstrating that Nu has progressed beyond account opening into regular financial use.

The Mexican customer profile highlights Nu's inclusion strategy. Management said Nu was the first bank account for 35% of Mexican customers and the first credit card for 52%. Customers lived in 98% of Mexico's municipalities, with nearly 80% outside major cities. That geographic reach gives Nu access to customers underserved by branch-based banking.

Nu also has a growing business customer base. The company serves 6.8 million small businesses in Brazil and estimates that this represents about one-third of that market. Higher-income consumers are addressed through Ultravioleta, while Croma targets the segment between the mass market and high-income customers. This segmentation creates a path to raise average revenue per active customer without abandoning the original mass-market franchise.

Competitive Landscape

Nu competes with universal banks such as Itaú Unibanco (ITUB), Banco Bradesco (BBD), Banco Santander Brasil (BSBR), and Banco do Brasil (BDORY). It also competes with digital banks such as Banco Inter (INTR), payment platforms such as Mercado Pago from MercadoLibre (MELI), PagSeguro (PAGS), and StoneCo (STNE), and wealth platforms such as XP (XP).

Traditional banks retain advantages in balance-sheet scale, corporate banking, branch access, and product breadth. Payment platforms compete for transaction volume and customer attention. Digital competitors compete for the same low-cost acquisition channels. Nu's counterweight is its 139 million customer base, 83.5% activity rate, primary-account penetration above 60% among Brazilian mass-market customers, and a single technology stack across three core countries.

The most defensible competitive advantage is the interaction between customer primacy and underwriting. Management said customers using Nu as their primary bank account show delinquency roughly half the portfolio average. That relationship produces richer behavioral data and places Nu higher in the customer's payment hierarchy. It is a stronger advantage than branding alone because it directly affects loan losses and revenue.

Macro & Geopolitical Landscape

Brazilian consumer credit is the main macro sensitivity. Nu reported 90-plus-day delinquency of 6.9% in Q2 2026, but management attributed the sequential move to seasonal migration and reported no broad-based weakening in consumer credit. The company also said its underwriting process assumes deterioration in future conditions and maintains a meaningful cushion in loan decisions.

Mexico provides a regulatory tailwind. Mexican regulators approved Nu's banking license, while the Central Bank introduced rules requiring financial institutions to standardize payment interfaces by year-end 2026. Nu's experience with Pix in Brazil gives it a relevant operating template for using simpler digital payments to deepen primary relationships.

Regulation also increases execution demands. The move into full banking services expands Nu's funding and product options, but it also brings greater compliance, capital, and operational obligations. The company's 2025 20-F received an unqualified audit opinion and reported effective internal control over financial reporting, which supports confidence in the control environment as the platform grows.

Balance Sheet Health

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A current ratio of 0.59 and a $39.4B credit portfolio make Nu's liquidity and credit-cycle exposure the key balance sheet watchpoints.

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Income Statement Strength

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Revenue rose from $7.7B in 2023 to $15.9B in 2025 while net income climbed from $1.0B to $2.9B, showing clear operating leverage.

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Estimates Outlook

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Nu beat the listed EPS estimate in only 1 of the last 7 completed quarters, so the forecast record remains uneven despite strong growth.

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Valuation Assessment

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At 14.8x forward earnings and a 5.4% free-cash-flow yield, Nu still screens as a growth stock with room for multiple support.

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Target Prices & Recommendation

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The report's valuation anchor is $18, with the stock trading at $14.62 and the Buy call implying meaningful upside from current levels.

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Closing

Nu Holdings has passed an important test: the digital banking model now produces material profits at significant scale. The company reached 139 million customers, generated more than $1B of quarterly net income, maintained a 19.5% efficiency ratio, and expanded risk-adjusted net interest margin to 12.4%. Those are operating facts, not promotional promises.

The stock remains suitable for a Buy rather than a Strong Buy because credit risk, regulatory obligations, liquidity metrics, and earnings consistency still matter. At $14.62, the market is giving investors access to a profitable Latin American digital bank before the Mexico platform and higher-value customer tiers are fully mature. The $18.00 fair value estimate offers a disciplined anchor for a medium-term position.

+Why is Nu Holdings growing so fast?
Nu is growing fast because it has 139 million customers, high activity rates, and a product set that spans deposits, cards, lending, payments, and investing. Mexico is the clearest growth engine, with 16 million customers and a newly approved banking license that should deepen monetization.
+How profitable is NU compared with its scale?
Nu is already highly profitable for its size, with Q2 2026 net income of $1.1B, a 19.5% efficiency ratio, a 12.4% risk-adjusted net interest margin, and 33% return on equity. Those figures show the company is converting scale into operating leverage rather than just chasing growth.
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