Ambev S.A.

Reported Q2 numbers: normalized EBITDA grew 8.9% to BRL 6.4 billion, with 80 basis points of margin expansion; consolidated cash COGS per hectoliter, excluding Marketplace, rose 2.2%; consolidated cash SG&A grew 10.7%; net financial expenses were BRL 486 million, down 50% year over year; the effective tax rate was 19.9%; normalized and stated net income were about BRL 3.5 billion, up 23.3% and 24.5%, respectively; normalized and stated EPS were BRL 0.22, up 24.2% and 25.4%, respectively. First-half figures: normalized EBITDA grew 9.6%; stated EBITDA grew 2.5%; normalized net income grew 10.1%; stated net income grew 11.6%; cash flow from operating activities was BRL 7.9 billion, up BRL 3.6 billion and more than 80%; cash flow used in investing activities was BRL 3.3 billion; cash flow used in financing activities was BRL 5.7 billion. Management also said first-half net revenue grew 7%, total volumes grew 0.7%, operating cash flow was BRL 8 billion according to the CEO’s commentary, first-half gross margin expanded 6.7 percentage points to 22%, and Brazil Beer cash COGS per hectoliter excluding Marketplace rose 9.7% in the first half versus a full-year guide of 4.5% to 7.5%. For capital returns, the company said it had executed about 95% of a 208 million share buyback program, representing roughly BRL 3.2 billion through July, announced BRL 4.2 billion of 2025 IOC payments before withholding tax, and BRL 1.8 billion of 2026 IOC declarations before withholding tax, totaling BRL 5.9 billion returned on a tax cash basis. No specific full-year revenue, EPS, or EBITDA guidance was given beyond the unchanged Brazil Beer cash COGS per hectoliter guide.

Carlos Lisboa framed the quarter as evidence that Ambev’s three-pillar strategy is gaining traction: lead and grow the category, digitize and monetize the ecosystem, and optimize the business. He emphasized that the World Cup was a broad portfolio activation, not just a brand campaign, and said the company used it to strengthen brand equity, share, and execution across markets. His tone was confident and upbeat, repeatedly stressing that the company is building stronger foundations and a more resilient, profitable growth model.

Guilherme Fleury focused on disciplined resource allocation and cash generation. He highlighted first-half normalized EBITDA growth of 9.6%, normalized net income growth of 10.1%, and cash flow from operations of BRL 7.9 billion, while noting that cash flow benefited from higher EBITDA and better working capital. He also pointed to BRL 486 million of net financial expenses, the 19.9% tax rate, and the shareholder-return framework, including roughly BRL 3.2 billion of buyback disbursements through July and BRL 5.9 billion returned via buybacks and IOC declarations. He flagged that Brazil Beer cash COGS per hectoliter excluding Marketplace rose 9.7% in the first half versus the unchanged full-year guide of 4.5% to 7.5%, and said Bolivia’s devaluation should gradually create a negative translation impact going forward.

Analysts focused mainly on Brazil NAB, Brazil Beer pricing/mix, and the second-half volume outlook after the World Cup. On NAB, management said about 30% of the 4.4% volume decline was due to exiting a low-return fast-food channel and that the business is now close to its intended price relativity and historical share levels, with a better second half expected. On Beer Brazil, Lisboa said the World Cup added about 0.5 to 1 percentage point to industry growth in the quarter and that net revenue per hectoliter was not diluted by the event itself, but rather by carryover dynamics and comparison bases. On the broader outlook, management declined to provide industry volume guidance but said they are confident in category resilience, while acknowledging elevated household leverage and the unpredictability of weather.