Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi

On a pro forma basis excluding Russian operations, Q4 2025 revenue increased 10.9% year over year to TRY 11.1 billion, and full-year revenue was TRY 54 billion. Q4 gross profit declined 4.6%, with margin down 680 basis points, and Q4 EBITDA declined 42.2% to TRY 649 million. Full-year consolidated EBITDA was TRY 40.5 billion, down around 2% year over year, with a 17% margin, while full-year net income was TRY 9 billion. Beer Group full-year EBITDA was TRY 7.3 billion with a 13.4% margin, down 209 basis points; Beer Group free cash flow was TRY 834 million in Q4. Consolidated net debt-to-EBITDA was 1.4x at December 31, 2025, or 1.2x excluding TAS 29 effects; Beer Group net debt-to-EBITDA was 4.0x, or 2.8x excluding TAS 29. Management guided for 2026 consolidated volume growth of mid-single digits, beer volume growth of low single digits, soft drink volume growth of mid-single digits, low single-digit net sales revenue per hectoliter growth under inflationary accounting, flat EBITDA margin, and CapEx/sales at high single-digit normalized levels. It also said gross margin pressure from the Q4 2024 hedge/cash designation base effect should not repeat in 2026, and Beer Group net debt-to-EBITDA was expected to be 2.8x (without TAS 29).

Onur Alturk characterized 2025 as a mixed year in a complex operating environment, but said the company kept executing discipline across markets. He emphasized portfolio diversification, premiumization, pricing discipline, and cost control as the main strategic levers for 2026, alongside a push into spirits and localization initiatives in markets such as China and Uzbekistan. His tone was cautious but constructive, repeatedly pointing to a focus on value over volume, cash generation, and resilience in a volatile macro backdrop.

Yasemen Guven Cayirezmez focused on the mechanics behind the numbers: Q4 revenue was TRY 11.1 billion, gross profit fell 4.6% with 680 bps margin contraction, and Q4 EBITDA was TRY 649 million, down 42.2% year over year. She said the gross margin pressure was largely due to the prior-year low base from hedge and aluminum cost effects in Turkey beer, and noted that OpEx was tightly controlled, with no increase in Q4 and even savings for the full year. She also highlighted that Beer Group free cash flow improved to TRY 834 million in Q4 thanks to working capital, lower interest expense and taxes, while 2026 priorities are restoring positive free cash flow, keeping margins stable, and improving working capital; leverage was 1.4x consolidated and 4.0x at Beer Group level reported, or 1.2x and 2.8x excluding TAS 29, respectively.

Analysts focused on when the beer business can generate positive free cash flow, why gross margin was weak year over year, Beer Group leverage, CapEx, Middle East exposure, Turkish beer competition, and dividends. Management said free cash flow should turn positive by the end of 2026, but not until Q4, and said the gross margin hit was a one-off from the prior-year hedge/cash designation base, not expected to recur in 2026. On geopolitical risk, management said Middle East exposure is only about 1% of total volume and revenue, with limited direct financial exposure and mitigation steps in place; on Turkey, it described the market as soft, competitive, and pressured by consumer affordability, but said market share is broadly stable and summer trading should improve with marketing and launch plans.