The AES Corporation

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $830 million, versus $698 million in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.75 per share, versus $0.71 a year ago. Management said year-to-date they have already achieved more than three-quarters of the midpoint of 2025 EBITDA guidance, and reaffirmed full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion and adjusted EPS guidance of $2.10 to $2.26. On the capital allocation side, AES expects approximately $2.7 billion of total discretionary cash sources, including upper-half parent free cash flow of $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion, more than $500 million of dividends to shareholders, about $1.8 billion of growth investment, and about $400 million of subsidiary debt repayment. The company also reaffirmed 5% to 7% long-term adjusted EBITDA growth through 2027 and said it expects an additional $400 million of run-rate EBITDA beyond 2027.

Andres Gluski emphasized execution against the plan, saying AES is on track with full-year 2025 guidance, long-term growth rates, and investment-grade credit metrics. He highlighted strong demand for renewables and data-center solutions, the company’s safe-harbored pipeline, and the role of scale and supply-chain advantages in improving returns. His tone was confident and upbeat, especially around the 4-gigawatt PPA target, utility growth, and the ability to serve customers needing faster access to power.

Steve Coughlin focused on the quarter’s financial performance, noting adjusted EBITDA of $830 million and adjusted EPS of $0.75. He said AES has already realized most of the $150 million in 2025 cost savings and remains on track for a $300 million annual run rate in 2026. He also pointed to strong balance-sheet metrics, saying Moody’s FFO-to-net-debt is tracking ahead of the 10% to 11% 2025 path and that AES is confident in reaching 12% by the end of 2026. On capital allocation, he said the company is self-funded through 2027, sees an ability to extend that beyond 2027, and does not plan to issue equity in this horizon.

Analysts pressed on whether AES’s long-term 5% to 7% EBITDA growth target understates upside, and Coughlin said the company is reaffirming that range through 2027 while the $400 million of EBITDA is mostly from projects completing in 2027 or later. Questions also focused on parent funding and whether equity would be needed; Coughlin said AES is self-funded through 2027, sees potential to extend that, and has no equity issuance plans. On data-center demand and the Indiana/Ohio utility opportunity, management said demand remains very strong, deal timing is lumpy, and AES Indiana expects to announce deals in the next couple of months. Management also clarified that the new “powered land” opportunity is a co-located model tied to a data-center site, with an associated PPA, rather than a pure land sale.