Ampol Limited

On an RCOP basis, full-year 2025 EBITDA was $1.4 billion, EBIT was $947 million, and NPAT was $429 million excluding significant items; EBIT was up more than 30% and NPAT was up more than 80% year on year. Convenience Retail EBIT was $374 million, up 4.8% year on year, while F&I EBIT more than doubled to $406 million; Lytton contributed EBIT of $163 million after returning to profitability. Statutory NPAT was $82 million, after $136 million of inventory losses after tax, and significant items were $210 million after tax. Leverage ended at 2.3x adjusted net debt to EBITDA, net borrowings were just over $2.9 billion, and total dividends were $1.00 per share fully franked including a $0.60 final dividend. Looking ahead, management said 2026 net CapEx should be around $600 million, reflecting refinery maintenance, the ultra-low sulfur fuels project, and continued retail investment; they also said they expect CapEx to normalize toward about $450 million after the current project cycle ends.

Matt Halliday framed 2025 as proof that Ampol’s strategy is working: improve the core asset base, expand fuels and convenience through segmentation, and evolve the offer pragmatically through the energy transition. He highlighted stronger retail execution, the return of Lytton to profitability, and a balance sheet that is now back within target range, which he said positions the company well for EG Australia if regulatory approval comes through. His tone was constructive and confident, especially around U-GO, premium fuels, and the resilience of fuel demand.

Greg Barnes focused on the breadth of earnings growth, the volume trade-offs from portfolio repositioning, and the cash/CapEx picture. He said Australian wholesale ex buy-sell volumes were down 2.6% for the year but up 3.2% in Q4, while New Zealand volumes were flat in a weak economy; he also noted $175 million of divestment inflows and about $100 million of working capital impact from the second phase of MSO obligations. On capital allocation, he pointed to the $563 million net CapEx in 2025, said a normal year would be closer to $450 million, and noted that new subordinated note arrangements and the extension of maturities to 5.3 years improve funding flexibility ahead of EG.

Analysts pressed hard on U-GO economics, volume leakage, CapEx intensity, debt, and whether EG volumes or earnings might be weakening. Management said U-GO site performance is measured by exact pre/post conversion comparisons, with about 6 months of ramp-up and an annualized uplift of $350,000 per site after ramp-up; they said the model is not pushing market prices lower, but is competing effectively in the second-tier market with a lower cost base. On wholesale volumes, management said the decline mainly reflected repositioning and retail-linked channels, while B2B volumes grew 3.2% in Q4 and should support better momentum in 2026. On SEAOIL, they said the $90 million impairment reflects a more conservative long-term outlook from increased regional storage capacity and competition, not a view that current performance has deteriorated.