Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V.

Second quarter total sales were MXN 20.21 billion, down 0.9% year over year, or up 3.5% excluding foreign exchange effects. Same-store sales increased 2.6%. EBITDA declined 6.2% to MXN 2.8 billion, with margin at 13.5%, down 70 basis points year over year. Net income fell 48.4% to MXN 528 million. By region, sales were up 4.2% in Mexico to MXN 12.2 billion, down 7.4% in Europe to MXN 5.9 billion, and down 6.9% in South America to MXN 2.9 billion. For 2026, management revised guidance to low-single-digit growth for same-store sales, revenue, and EBITDA, while still expecting about MXN 5.5 billion of CapEx, 180 to 220 store openings, and leverage within the previously communicated range.

Cristian Gurría framed the quarter as one of uneven demand and tighter consumer conditions, especially in Mexico, but emphasized that the business still executed well on brands, profitability, digital, and cash flow. He repeatedly pointed to sequential improvement from April to June and said July trends were improving further, with the end of World Cup-related disruption helping normalize traffic. Strategically, he highlighted continued store expansion, remodels, portfolio optimization, and the first Chipotle opening in Monterrey as signs that the long-term playbook remains intact.

Federico Rodríguez focused on the financial drivers behind the quarter: weaker consumption in Mexico, FX translation, and a one-off comparison from last year all weighed on EBITDA and net income. He said adjusted EBITDA in Mexico rose 1.3% despite a 70 bps margin contraction, Europe improved in local currency, and South America was hurt mainly by FX and input-cost pressure. He also highlighted MXN 1.8 billion of CapEx in the first half, MXN 5.5 billion cash, MXN 29.5 billion net debt excluding leases, and a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.5x; he said the company expects the same capital allocation framework and cited MXN 478 million of six-month savings from eliminating a derivative cost spread.

Analysts focused on three themes: why Mexico was softer than expected despite the World Cup, whether SG&A and margins could improve without a demand rebound, and how Starbucks Mexico’s performance and remodeling program should be read. Management said the Mexico softness came from weaker discretionary spending, lower airport traffic, movement restrictions, and home office during World Cup games, while France improved under a recovery plan and the Netherlands and Belgium posted double-digit growth. On margins and guidance, management said second-half stabilization should come from easier comps, lower dollar-denominated input costs, productivity initiatives, tighter SG&A, and improving distribution-center efficiency rather than a sharp demand recovery.