Aemetis, Inc.

For Q2 2026, revenue increased 20% to $62.7 million versus $52.2 million a year ago. Operating income improved by $16.4 million to $5.8 million, while net loss improved to $9.4 million from $23.4 million and adjusted EBITDA rose to $9.7 million from negative $5.8 million. Gross profit was $13.8 million excluding 45Z credits, still up more than $8 million year over year, helped by corn at $6.07 per bushel versus $6.42, ethanol volume up 12%, ethanol pricing up 9%, and RNG volume up 38%. Management said 45Z credits added $8.6 million in the quarter; cash at quarter-end was $1 million, and $17.6 million of net cash proceeds from the sale of Section 45Z credits were received on July 9. Capital investments were $8.6 million in Q2 and $15.1 million in the first half. For the India business, August allocations are expected to generate approximately $17 million in revenue. No formal full-year or next-quarter numerical guidance was given beyond project timing and the India allocation revenue expectation.

Eric McAfee framed Q2 as another step in Aemetis’ financial inflection, emphasizing that earnings power should expand as LCFS pathway approvals, 45Z updates and capital projects flow through. He highlighted 7 approved California LCFS pathways averaging negative 380 CI, 6 more nearing approval, and said those approvals should materially increase RNG credit generation. His tone was optimistic and regulatory-driven, repeatedly pointing to value unlocks already supported by existing laws but not yet fully reflected in current revenue.

Todd Waltz focused on the quarter’s hard numbers and the credit monetization story. He said revenue was $62.7 million, operating income was $5.8 million, net loss was $9.4 million and adjusted EBITDA was $9.7 million; he also noted $8.6 million of 45Z credits in Q2, Q2 capital spending of $8.6 million, and $1 million of cash at quarter-end. He pointed out $17.6 million in net cash proceeds from the July 9 sale of Section 45Z credits and said the company is still funding energy-efficiency and biogas projects while relying on credit proceeds and future cash events to support liquidity.

Analysts focused heavily on 45Z upside, asking about the likely CI revision, catch-up value for past molecules and the annual impact. Management said the range is wide and not fully clear yet, but suggested dairy RNG could move from the current negative 42 calculation toward something closer to California’s negative 420 equivalent, ethanol could improve cash by $6 million to $24 million, and a one-time catch-up could apply if Treasury guidance starts January 1, 2025. Questions also covered LCFS pricing, India IPO timing and liquidity; management said LCFS deficits should persist, India IPO timing depends on market conditions, and debt will likely be addressed through upcoming cash events and refinancing.